What killed Keir Starmer

Over the past few years, doctors in the UK have observed the emergence of an obscure seasonal ailment: as temperatures go up, leaders go down. 

Don’t believe us? David Cameron announced his resignation in June, and both Theresa May and Boris Johnson stepped down in July. Now it’s Keir Starmer’s turn.

So don your scrubs, because we’re doing a post-mortem.

It’s only two years ago that Starmer made history, inflicting the Conservative Party’s worst result in its 190-year life, and just missing Tony Blair’s record win for Labour.

And yet… he’s now completed that same fateful walk out to a small black podium in front of 10 Downing Street to announce he’s resigning. Why? In his own words, Starmer said his centre-left ruling party had lost faith in his leadership.

But would a coroner accept that cause of political death? No. So let’s explore his…

Cause of death: A fatal blow

Our favourite explanation is that Starmer was doomed ever since February 9th, when a photographer called Yui Mok snapped that pic of Starmer fleeing, ghost-like, in the back of his armoured Range Rover. No British public figure ever survives that pic.

But true as that may be, the final blow came from fellow Labour Party luminary Andy Burnham, who made a smart decision back in 2017: after two failed runs for party leader, he quit parliament and ran for mayor of Manchester, where he’s spent the last decade building a name tackling transport and housing issues while the capital burned.

But surely a mayor can’t just suddenly become prime minister? Hah. In Britain’s parliamentary democracy, you just need party support + a seat in parliament. So with Starmer’s polling plummeting, his party needed a saviour, and someone in Manchester voluntarily vacated their parliamentary seat so Burnham could run and save the nation.

That by-election happened Thursday, and Starmer resigned ~72 hours later rather than fight an internal party battle he was destined to lose. But surely it’s not so simple…?

Autopsy: Co-morbidities

Clearly Keir was unwell before anyone abroad ever heard of Manchester’s mayor.

Some of those ailments were personal, like Starmer’s wooden vibes, or his poor decisions such as appointing Epstein-BFF Peter Mandelson as British ambassador to the US.

But others were environmental, like the fact all five (soon six) PMs of the last seven years have struggled to tackle high debt, low wages, creaking services, and creeping malaise.

With populists pounding at the door, his steps to the right might’ve then bled party support from the left. Okay, but anything else the coroner should consider? Yes…

Witness interviews

Grim as this sounds, there’s now a lot of relief in the air — 60% of Brits say Starmer did the right thing by resigning, and even 50% of his own party faithful are happy he’s gone. That speaks to the sheer depths of his recent approval ratings.

But markets somehow kept calm and carried on. The pound and bonds regained most of their losses by EOD, while the FTSE 100 traded higher. Yes, investors abhor instability, but this change has arguably been priced in since that pic, and the transition will be smooth.

*snaps latex gloves off, takes off face mask *

Ok so, what’s next? 

Starmer remains as caretaker until his party chooses a replacement.

And wouldn’t you know it, but Andy ‘King of the North’ Burnham got sworn in to parliament the very same day Starmer announced his exit, and immediately announced his bid for the top job. He already seems to clear the main party hurdles (like support from 20% of Labour MPs), with no other challenger now in the ring.

Assuming nobody else comes forward, he’ll be Britain’s new PM within weeks rather than months, though still facing Britain’s same old problems.