The geopolitics of Trump’s birthday

It was Seinfeld who famously quipped about the similarities between life’s earlier and later birthdays: either way, “you just kind of sit there, you don’t know what’s going on, people have to help you blow out the candles, you don’t even know why you’re there.”

But not Donald Trump, who just became history’s second US president (after Biden) to turn 80 in office. So rather than recap the UFC spectacle on the White House lawn (basically everyone got stoppage-mogged fyi), we’ll take you on a quick tour of the world leaders who wished POTUS a happy birthday and why, starting with…

1. 🇷🇺 Vladimir Putin 

The Russian leader went out of his way to be Trump’s first birthday caller, laying on the charm (“bright, remarkable person”) while agreeing to host US envoys Witkoff and Kushner again. Why? Ego-stroking is free and effective, and keeping the Trump-envoy channel open helps sideline more traditional State Department channels appalled by Putin’s war.

The timing also works: the call came just as Trump was announcing his Iran deal, and just before he was due in France for the G7 summit, all potentially auguring bad news for Putin via lower oil prices and a less distracted West. Hence Putin’s rush to call.

But there’s a deeper irony here: in gutting US support for Ukraine in hopes to force a deal, Trump has now eroded America’s own leverage as Ukrainians just build more of their own arms instead. The result is that while Putin was still busy buttering up a US president, Ukraine was busy severing Putin’s few remaining supply routes to occupied Crimea.

And then came the call from…

2. 🇺🇦 Volodymyr Zelensky 

Zelensky also laid on the charm (he’s no idiot), but paired his thanks with updates on how Ukraine is turning battlefield momentum back in its own favour — Trump likes winners.

Interestingly, Zelensky apparently made no mention of his recent letter asking to *buy* more US air defence to thwart Putin’s attacks on Ukrainian cities — presumably he figured best to keep the call positive, then save any asks for their G7 meeting in-person.

And yet… Zelensky is busy hedging against US disengagement here too, with a Ukrainian-built interceptor (the Pokrov) already entering service at one-tenth the price of a Patriot.

But is there a deeper irony again? Trump lands as the G7’s “talk to both sides” statesman, while pointing to Ukraine’s battlefield wins as vindication of his hands-off approach.

Now it’s time to stroll over to the presidential fax machine to hear from…

3. 🇰🇿 Kassym-Jomart Tokayev

The Kazakh president chose a telegram (those are still a thing?) to greet POTUS, partly just as routine “don’t ignore the big man” diplomacy in Central Asia. But it’s also more:

Kazakhstan is in a tough neighbourhood (Russia, China, Iran) and has been quietly positioning itself as a reliable Central Asia partner for the US, including by joining Trump’s Abraham Accords with Israel. And the US has in turn seen opportunities across rare earths and energy transit, while parrying China’s parallel moves into Russia’s erstwhile backyard.

Now fire up your 2010-era desktop PC to hear from… 

4. 🇵🇭 Bongbong Marcos Jr. 

Facebook is still big in the Philippines, which might explain why President Marcos Jr used it to send Trump some birthday love. We wonder if Marcos only did so after getting one of those classic FB notifications, like “it’s Donald’s birthday, why not send him a message!”

But what’s Bongbong’s angle? Recall he’s under pressure on every side right now:

• At home, he’s juggling earthquake disaster response, spiralling energy costs, and a political revolt from his own veep that risks splitting the country in two, while…

• Abroad, China is still testing his red lines in the South China Sea, sanctioning his defence minister + family, and deploying a strange new floating platform (with antenna and personnel!) inside the disputed Scarborough Shoal lagoon.

So for one of America’s more exposed allies, a quick FB greeting was partly a low-lift way to remind his foes (at home and beyond) who’s theoretically in his corner.

Then for the last one, stroll with us down to the White House mailroom to hear from…

5. 🇩🇪 Frank-Walter Steinmeier 

That’s Germany’s president, a mostly ceremonial role, which means he has time to pen a personal letter featuring references to Trump’s own German grandfather. But speaking of Grandpa Trump, Germany’s day-to-day leader (Chancellor Merz) also not only handwrote a letter (must be a German thing?) but also rocked up to the G7 with a gift!

While the rest of the table presumably seared Merz with the classic “I thought we weren’t doing presents” energy (like showing up at a kid’s party empty-handed while one dad rolls in with a PS5), the US president received a gilded copy of his grandfather’s birth certificate.

Why? It’s a nice gesture. But the underlying message here is that, with US-Europe ties in disarray, maybe some shared heritage can provide a bit of ballast. Maybe.

Sound even smarter:

• Trump’s various other congratulatory messages came from Israel’s Netanyahu, Hungary’s ousted Orban, Fiji’s Rabuka, and beyond.