Europe’s good cop / bad cop in DC

President Trump has now followed up Friday’s Alaska summit by hosting Ukraine’s Zelensky and a phalanx of European leaders (with a Putin phone call along the way).

So here are the four lines you need to know

1. “I think as a follow-up we would need probably a quadrilateral meeting, because when we speak about security guarantees, we speak about the whole security of the European continent” — Emmanuel Macron, President, France 🇫🇷

Foreign diplomats around DC whisper that President Trump plays good cop with foes and leaves his advisors to play bad cop (it’s vice-versa for allies). But a diplomat with one of the visiting leaders told us a similar strategy is now emerging in Europe’s response:

• Some, like the UK’s Starmer, Italy’s Meloni, NATO’s Rutte, and Finland’s Stubbs, play good cop, using public bonhomie to create space for a more private push

• Others, like France’s Macron, play the bad cop, drawing Trump’s occasional ire with public declarations like the one above.

But Macron isn’t alone…

2. "I can’t imagine that the next meeting will take place without a ceasefire, so let’s work on that" — Friedrich Merz, Chancellor, Germany 🇩🇪

Germany’s Merz often joins Macron out in front, though it’s unclear if Trump heard this ceasefire push: instead, Trump announced the next step is a Putin-Zelensky summit. Why?

3. “I don’t think we need a ceasefire” — Donald Trump, President, United States 🇺🇸

We’ve flagged the debate around starting with a ceasefire versus straight to a peace agreement. In short, many argue skipping the ceasefire just helps Putin, as it forces Ukraine to negotiate under fire, while bogging the West down in Putin’s ‘root causes’.

But the White House is arguing Trump’s recent deals (Azerbaijan-Armenia, DRC-Rwanda, India-Pakistan) have all skipped ceasefires, and he’s pledging Russo-Ukraine will be next.

As for the terms? President Trump is again pushing Ukraine to cede more turf, and that’s nudging Merz and Macron to play bad cop again: nothing about Europe without Europe.

But Trump doesn’t seem moved, reiterating we’ll have to get a deal “as they fight”. 

4. “Security guarantees… must really be very practical, delivering protection on land, in the air, and at sea, and must be developed with Europe’s participation” — Volodymyr Zelensky, President, Ukraine 🇺🇦

Zelensky has clearly bounced back from *that* last Oval Office meeting, this time rocking a sharp suit, plenty of gratitude, some good jokes (he’s an ex-comedian after all), and even a personal letter from Ukraine’s first lady to Melania Trump.

And while he avoided pushing back with the cameras rolling, he wasn’t afraid to reiterate a point he’s been making since before Putin invaded: without real security guarantees for Ukraine, there’s nothing stopping Putin from just regrouping and re-attacking.

But interestingly, when later speaking to Ukrainian journalists in DC, Zelensky seemed relieved by whatever assurances he got from President Trump: “I can’t go into details, but it’s important that a political decision has been made.” Word is it might entail a Ukrainian pledge to buy (with European finance) $100B in US weapons.