Eat this summit sandwich

Parallel universes.

What’s the best sandwich out there? Americans will die on a hill for the philly cheesesteak, our Vietnamese friends swear by the bahn mi, and Aussies might fight you over the democracy sausage (don’t ask). But they’re all wrong. 

For diplomacy nerds like us (and therefore you by association), the best sandwich is a summit sandwich, and this weekend served us quite the pairing, starting with… 

1. Singapore’s Shangri-La Dialogue: Asia’s top security and defence conference, packed with ministers, generals, and spooks (🤫) from 40+ countries, plus… 

2. The Supreme Eurasian Economic Council: four post-Soviet nations (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan) plus Russia, who all met in Astana.

As you might expect, those two events had some pretty distinct... flavours, but those differences offer insights into how our world is tackling three big themes, starting with…

1. Artificial Intelligence

“The Russian Federation is one of, perhaps, the few countries that is both capable of creating, and is indeed creating, its own sovereign platforms for the development of artificial intelligence.” - Vladimir Putin, Russian President.

This regional summit in Kazakhstan explicitly focused on AI, and Putin used the stage to pitch his Russia as the region’s natural AI partner. Why?

It’s really about control, of both…

• a) AI: a heavily-filtered sovereign model is deeply attractive for any regime already censoring the internet and forcing folks onto state-run apps, and…

• b) turf: he’s urging joint efforts and even offering to host next year’s summit, not because he’s a team player, but because AI now offers another arena to seek status at home and relevance abroad, particularly in a region having real doubts.

But it’s hard to see his fellow presidents at the podium taking him up on that offer given how much Russian AI already a) lags behind the US and Chinese pioneers, b) lacks investment, c) faces stringent hardware sanctions, and d) struggles to retain top talent.

Ok, passing the mic to the defence wonks over at Singapore’s Shangri-La…

“The erosion of predictability and compression of decision-making timelines [due to AI] are fundamentally reshaping the nature of interstate conflict and strategic deterrence.” - Nauman Zakria, Pakistani Lieutenant General.

This was one of the few AI mentions at Shangri-La, and it came from none other than the head of Pakistan’s rocket force command! So he’s not speaking in the abstract, but rather highlighting the nightmare scenario for nuclear-armed neighbours like Pakistan and India now grappling with seconds-long decision windows in the age of AI.

2. Partnerships

“I do not reproach, but strongly urge to implement all the goals and objectives of our Union in a timely and complete manner” - Aleksandr Lukashenko, Belarusian President.

If you’ve ever taken part in a family dinner or multilateral forum, you know drama is natural (your estranged Uncle Gus probably insists it’s healthy), but Lukashenko’s blunt jab here is really striking: 12 years after agreeing on deeper economic integration, this bloc still hasn’t nailed down mutual digital signatures, and yet Putin wants to pivot to AI!

But there was an on-stage silence even louder than any Belarusian dictator’s words: Armenia’s Westward-leaning Nikol Pashinyan skipped this summit altogether, in yet another reminder of how rapidly Putin is now haemorrhaging influence across the region.

Now passing the mic back for a related (and blunt) message out of Shangri-La… 

“The era of the United States subsidizing the defense of wealthy nations is over. We need partners, not protectorates.” - Pete Hegseth, US Secretary of Defence.

It’s related how? Two very different pacts, but with one shared problem: the patron-client model is fraying, just in opposite ways. Belarus (client) wants Moscow (patron) to deliver on old promises, whereas the US (patron) is increasingly telling its clients to step up.

3. Iran

“The president called for the immediate implementation of national currency exchange mechanisms and independent payment systems to insulate member states from unjust, external sanctions” - Readout from Iranian President Pezeshkian's letter to Putin’s EAEU.

Iran’s regime has shown it can survive war, but it now seems increasingly wary of how its own economic crisis might finish the job. That’s why Pezeshkian is calling here for new payment rails that bypass US controls: the Islamic Republic needs cash, and quick.

So did Putin’s bloc heed Iran’s call? Hah no. Per Lukashenko above, they’re not quite up to the task yet. But hey, you lose 100% of the shots you don’t take.

Meanwhile, back at the Shangri-La… 

“Today, we are seeing a situation in which the Strait of Hormuz is … neither free nor open. […] Who benefits from such a situation?” - Shinjirō Koizumi, Japanese Defence Minister. 

Koizumi — a future PM and Columbia alum — isn’t just stating the obvious here. He’s very carefully drawing a parallel: if Iran can weaponise a maritime chokepoint, imagine what others (he carefully avoids the word “China”) could do in the Indo-Pacific.

Anyway, whether financial or logistical, it’s all a reminder of how much everyone is now scanning for chokepoint vulnerabilities.

Sound even smarter:

• Russian finance officials are reportedly now warning Putin that his defence spending is unsustainable (something we’ve been warning for a while).