Did Trump get what he wanted?
World leaders just wrapped another summit, but this time it was NATO’s turn in The Hague. So here are the three quotes you need to know:
"Thank you for your decisive action in Iran... it makes us all safer" - NATO chief Mark Rutte sent this via text to President Trump
Ever screenshotted something then accidentally sent it right back to the original sender? Uff, so awkward — who were you planning on sharing that with? Well Mark Rutte (the former Dutch leader and now NATO secretary-general) need not wonder, because President Trump went ahead and tweeted Marky-Mark’s private text to the whole world.
But did that text actually reveal anything new? It arguably just confirmed two things we already knew:
a) This is why the world calls Rutte ‘the Trump whisperer’ — he’s unafraid to be the president’s hype-man, whether on Iran or NATO spending, so long as…
b) It helps ensure continued US engagement in a turbulent world, at least until Europe can re-arm.
And while having his private text tweeted will have been awkward (though many European leaders might quietly cede point a above), Rutte’s play might’ve worked: at the post-summit presser, President Trump called the gathering “tremendous”, praised allies for stepping up, and reiterated that NATO ain’t NATO without America.
But why exactly was he so happy…?
"Allies commit to invest 5% of GDP annually on core defence requirements as well as defence-and security-related spending by 2035" - Joint Declaration
While this year's declaration only had five points (versus 38 last year), that 5% spending target seems like a big one, covering 3.5% for the classics (troops, tanks, jets) and 1.5% for military adjacent spending like relevant infrastructure.
But, there’s a catch:
Not everyone’s on board: Spain’s PM is capping his spending at 2.1%, and others like Belgium and Slovakia don’t seem convinced either. So, the final text fudged it, writing that “allies” committed to 5%, not every ally. Yes, a little like how one Homer was still technically allowed in the No Homers Club.
As for Ukraine: NATO recycled its old promise about Kyiv being on an “irreversible” (if also never-ending) path towards membership.
And speaking of Ukraine…
"We are facing a network of state and non-state actors that are serving the cause of aggression... This network includes Russia, North Korea, the current regime in Iran, Chinese companies" Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
This caught our eye as one of the few mentions China got during the summit, compared to last year’s spicy references to China as challenging "our interests, security and values", amid DC’s ongoing push to re-focus on the Indo-Pacific.
We also couldn’t help but notice that leaders of Indo-Pacific allies like Japan, Korea, and Australia ended up skipping this NATO summit (they were — with New Zealand — invited as NATO’s ‘P4’ partners in Asia). But we’d be wary of jumping to any conclusions here.
Rather, it’s all probably a reflection that a) this summit focused on immediate crises, b) the agenda was short and sharp to avoid rocking things with a sceptical US president, and c) those three Indo-Pacific allies have their own urgent priorities calling back home.
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