America at 250

While US Intriguers stock up on hot dogs and freedom ahead of this weekend’s historic 4th of July celebrations, we figured we’d moon-walk into the weekend reflecting on how the US is doing on its 250th birthday. Let’s run through some numbers, starting with… 

• 💪 39% 

That’s the US share of global military spending, a figure virtually unchanged since 2001. It’s still so large, in fact, it single-handedly eclipses the next five countries… combined!

Those 700 installations in ~80 countries aren’t just glamour muscles either: we’ve seen ~500 US interventions over a quarter millennium — some good (defeat actual WWII Nazis), some disastrous (Iraq 2.0), and some that should’ve happened but didn’t (Rwanda).

And while the resulting post-WWII Pax Americana was never going to be perfect, darnit, it’s still the closest humanity has gotten to achieving escape velocity from our world’s default state of anarchy, delivering the longest modern run of prosperity and great-power peace, plus tidy lil’ texts like… the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

(If you sensed a ‘but’ coming, congrats on your spidey senses.) But things are changing…

• First, the gap is narrowing: while US defence spending was 6x China’s a decade ago, that gap has now since halved (with some capabilities at parity or beyond)

• Second, the will is waning: with doubts around Pax Americana’s ROI, 40% of folks now prefer to “stay out of world affairs” altogether

• Third, the ledger is straining: net interest on national US debt has been exceeding US defence spending since 2024, with a gap that’s widening, and…

• Fourth, the effectiveness is evolving: just ask Venezuela’s Maduro on the one hand (yeeted from his bed) or Iran’s mullahs on the other (still in power).

So okay, there are some aches and pains, but the US still has impressive biceps, triceps, and quadriceps. And you can only spend that much time in the gym if you’ve also got…

• 💵 26% 

That’s America’s share of world GDP, down slightly from its 30% peak in 2000, and yet somehow still the same as the early 90s when the Soviets collapsed and China was waking.

Dig deeper and you’ll also see the greenback dominates ~60% of global reserves, 88% of trade, and it even pegs 66 other currencies, while two US networks (Visa/Mastercard) run 70% of all credit card transactions and should really advertise with Intrigue (call us 🤙).

But (there’s that word again) productivity growth is now at its slowest sustained pace since the 70s^* , and inequality is now at levels not seen since the 1920s.

So okay, there’s a slight wheeze. Then what about our most important organ (the other one)…

• 🧠 7

That’s how many of the world’s top 10 universities are still in the US, which still wins the most Nobel Prizes in sciences and economics. Throw in 50%+ of the world’s venture capital to back the best ideas, and you’ve got a brain still doing sudoku during take-off.

But (what the heck man, c’mon) K-12 outcomes still lag most other advanced nations, public trust in those fancy colleges is eroding amid polarization, China has eclipsed the rest of the world in science publications, and that pipeline of foreign STEM talent is showing strain (international grad student enrolments just dropped ~12% in a year).

^* Plus there’s this perennial asterisk around AI, where the US dominates across market cap (70%), private investment (70%), and frontier patents (60%), and might be on the cusp of reviving the productivity growth we flagged above — there are trillions riding on that.

But you can also flip those stats and marvel at the fact China is only a few months behind at a fraction of the cost, with an attitude towards AI that seems twice as optimistic.

Then let’s wrap this up in Intrigue’s favourite home-turf…

• 👫 2nd 

That’s where Lowy’s Global Diplomacy Index now ranks the US, as DC trims its diplomatic footprint from a 2017 peak of 274 missions down to ~271 today — sure, a very modest trim, though enough to lose the top spot to an expanding China.

The more meaningful numbers are probably in the details, with a ~20% drop in foreign service officers since their 2023 peak, and ambassadorial vacancies now at a record ~55%.

Now by all means cut costs and streamline bureaucracy, but when you leave the field, rivals keep scoring. And maybe when you threaten to yoink allied territory, that’s an own goal? Some US allies tell pollsters they now find China more dependable than the US.

Anyway, all that to say at 250 years, the US still has strong ‘ceps, steady lungs, a sharp mind, deep pockets, and longstanding (if now wary) partners.

But there are some warnings flashing on the dash. And if the position of US surgeon-general wasn’t still vacant, the ol’ doc would probably highlight research that one of the best things you can do to boost your longevity is to have lots of friends.

Sound even smarter:

• 59% of Americans think their country’s best days are behind them.

• Almost half of Americans believe China has already surpassed the US or will do so in the next five years.