A mystery visit to Moscow

On Tuesday morning, a US military transport appeared on every flight-tracker in the world, entered Russian airspace, and touched down at Vnukovo as Ukraine's drones fell silent. A US motorcade then sliced through the capital, idled downtown, then sped back out to the tarmac. And like that (💨) the C-17 was gone.

It turns out the secret passenger was President Trump's CIA boss, John Ratcliffe.

But if you really want a covert meeting, you send a private Gulfstream under a shell company tail number. Flying a massive US Air Force Globemaster? Direct from Joint Base Andrews? Then roaring a motorcade through Moscow? That’s a message.

But which message? Let's look at the main theories, starting with...

1. 🛑 Deterrence

Maybe Ratcliffe was there to draw a line? There's a bit of evidence, including...

Precedent: the last CIA director to visit Moscow was Biden's Bill Burns, who famously made a 2021 dash to a) flag that the US knew what Putin was planning, and b) warn of all the pain ahead if Putin did invade Ukraine.

The idea was to deter Putin and — nearly five years and a million+ lives later — we know Burns was right, but Putin wasn't listening. Then there's...

Reporting: The Wall Street Journal has been out there citing US intel that Putin might be a) gearing up for a fresh wave of military mobilisation, and/or b) preparing to somehow further test NATO's resolve. There's also...

Personality: unlike some other Trump 2.0 figures, Ratcliffe has zero sympathy for Putin's expansionism. Plus...

Itinerary: along the way, Ratcliffe spent 24 hours next door in NATO ally Latvia, perhaps calming any local "test NATO's resolve" nerves.

So okay, it makes sense that maybe Ratcliffe was in Moscow basically saying "we see your cards, don't play them". But we also have our doubts: all that WSJ reporting has been pretty vague, and any post-election (September) mobilisation Putin has in mind will be too late to make a battlefield difference until well into 2027 (if ever).

Ditto, given Putin's failures in Ukraine, it's hard to see him sustaining another front with the West, though a) he's made dumb decisions before (Ukraine), b) he's received bad advice before (Ukraine), and c) there's still a world in which he escalates further against the West but keeps things within his 'hybrid' guardrails.

But then why send someone as senior as Ratcliffe? Per that 'bad advice' above, the free world has long realised Putin's goons just tell the tsar what he wants to hear, so you need to send someone senior enough to meet Putin and tell the guy direct.

Another plausible theory involves...

2. 🕊️ Peace talks

The last senior Americans in Moscow were Trump envoys Witkoff and Kushner in January. After a half-dozen such meetings, they've made zero real progress, and arguably just delayed peace further by amplifying Putin's maximalist demands.

So maybe Trump has now deployed the more hawkish Ratcliffe in hopes this might ratchet up the pressure and shake out more options? But Trump doesn't seem too interested in Putin’s war in general, let alone right now given his focus on...

3. 🇮🇷 Iran

The day before the C-17 landed in Moscow, Secretary Bessent unveiled his "economic D-Day" to further isolate Iran. So maybe Ratcliffe went to Russia — one of Iran's few remaining lifelines — to confront Putin with the sigint receipts and push him to end all support (targeting, diplomatic, sanctions-busting).

Or else? The Bessent plan threatens more crippling US sanctions, plus the CIA has form in helping Ukraine map Russia's vulnerabilities (command, radar, energy etc).

But the reality is Putin just has too much to gain via Iran's regime — each day it survives just further dilutes, distracts, and demoralises US power, freeing Putin's hand in Ukraine.

The other main theory involves...

4. ⛓️ Prisoners

Ratcliffe has form here, too — he helped negotiate the release of dual national Ksenia Karelina last year, and has kept this CIA back-channel open ever since. So sure, a face-to-face can sometimes budge a stalled case, and there are a few Americans still languishing in Russian cells: Khachatoorian (airport gun), Barnes (custody battle), Jezler (CBD oil), Zimmerman (yacht rifle), Hubbard (Ukraine teacher).

But for all the anguish, none have gripped US attention like a Gershkovich, Whelan, or Griner. Plus the itinerary details just feel mis-aligned: C-17 to Moscow? Latvia layover? Ukraine strike pause? This all feels more a message than a trade.

But the truth is, we just don't know which message, let alone whether Moscow is still even listening.

Sound even smarter:

• The Kremlin denies Ratcliffe met Putin, but it also initially denied any knowledge of Ratcliffe’s entire visit. Plus we know Putin was in the Kremlin. 🤷

• FBI chief Kash Patel is reportedly planning to visit Russia in October.