4 tales to watch this week

Northern hemisphere Intriguers will feel that Fall mood in the air: maybe it’s the waft of Pumpkin Spice Latte. Folks down south of the equator will be feeling those Spring vibes: it’s probably all that pomegranate & rose espresso tonic you’re smashing.

Whatever your brew, there’s now an end-of-year sprint on, and this is what we’re tracking: 

1.   The Fed

We’re almost certain to see this year’s first US rate cut tomorrow (Wednesday) in welcome news for both the White House and investors, even if it’s already priced in.

But markets will also be watching for any hints of stagflation, dissent around the data, and global spillover (the US is already an outlier, resuming cuts just as peers hit pause).

Meanwhile, any signalling of bigger-than-expected cuts could rattle markets, with the implicit message that the Fed now feels late (or… markets could just say yay and let rip).

And of course, everyone wants word on what’s up with board member Lisa Cook — a court has temporarily blocked President Trump’s attempt to fire her, and there’s reporting that the underlying fraud allegations were off. It’ll all shape when Trump can get a Fed majority, presumably more likely to let the economy run hot.

2. Zapad 2025 

That’s the name of the joint Russia-Belarus military exercises (‘zapa’ means ‘west’) held every four years, with the latest iteration actually wrapping in Belarus today (Tuesday). You’ll recall the last time Putin held these drills, he used them as cover for his mass 2021 build-up near Ukraine before then invading (after repeatedly claiming he wouldn’t).

Three things we’ve noticed this time around?

First, the messaging, with the Russians and Belarusians claiming these are scaled-down drills to reduce tensions with NATO next door. That’s likely just spin for the fact that…

Second, Putin simply doesn’t have the manpower, with maybe a few thousand Russian troops turning up this year, down from as many as 200,000 in 2021.

And third, the spectators, which included the usual mix of Moscow-friendly dictatorships, but with a very notable addition: two US officials were there, too. It’s part of the curious US-Belarus dance now underway, with the US trading sanctions relief for political prisoner releases, though DC’s end-game is unclear — there’s talk of it somehow helping peace talks, though maybe it’s also to cleave Minsk away from Moscow?

3. 69th IAEA General Conference

That’s the UN nuclear watchdog’s big annual meeting in Vienna this week, with all the usual players gearing up for a familiar fight: 

• US energy chief Chris Wright is calling for Iran’s uranium-enrichment programme to be “completely dismantled” 

• Iran’s nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami is pushing members to label the earlier US-Israeli strikes on Iranian sites a breach of international law, and…

• IAEA boss Rafael Grossi is just urging everyone to recommit to the rules.

Grossi, of course, also tries to thread this with one eye on the possibility he could end up the next secretary-general of the UN (the selection process is due to start by December).

Anyway, even if the above feels like Groundhog Day, the fact everyone is sending their top envoys is a reminder our embattled multilateral system is still the only game in town.

4. An end to the TikTok saga? 

With each US stay-of-execution for TikTok, the legal basis for its continued US presence has just gotten weaker and weaker (the legislation never intended so many extensions).

But word is there might now be a deal, with Presidents Trump and Xi due to give it their blessing on Friday. The big question is whether it strikes a meaningful balance between preserving the platform’s massive social and economic value for the US, against the real risks that come with such a powerful tool answering (via a China-based parent) to Beijing.

There’s not enough public info yet, though rumours are this deal does involve US owners taking control, and TikTok’s coveted algorithm getting transferred to new US owners via a licensing agreement. If this is the case, it might explain why Beijing still sounds a little salty about the whole thing, warning the US against further “suppression” of Chinese firms.