4 monster IPOs vs the world

Another day. Another Initial Public Offering (IPO), with yuuuge international implications. We've ranked the latest giants by sheer size, so shall we take a quick look? Starting with…

1. SpaceX

Filed on May 20 for a possible mid-June listing, Elon's SpaceX IPO is shaping up as the largest in history, raising $40B-$80B at a $1.75T - $2T valuation. We're talking ~triple the current record-holder, which was Saudi Aramco's ~$26B raise back in 2019.

So... why? Musk argues it's just to, you know, bankroll Mars, orbital data centres, and a multi-planetary future for humanity. A cynic might also quip he's cashing out at peak valuation (100x sales 😮), milking fans as exit liquidity, or using his Starlink satellite internet cash-cow to bail out his Tesla and xAI burn.

But we’re more interested in the geopolitical ripples, like…

First, there's Starlink: it's already a de facto tool of US soft and hard power (think Ukraine, Iran), but Elon now wants to accelerate his constellation density. That’d a) thwart efforts by China/Russia to compete or disrupt, and b) help lock in his classified (and lucrative) 'Starshield' variant — it's tough to harass US satellites when they’re a full mesh.

Second, there's the capital flow, with this IPO not only helping recycle cap creation into America's broader tech ecosystem, but also sucking more global liquidity to finance US space and AI exceptionalism, while rivals (and allies) still play catch-up via subsidies.

But of course third, there's the sheer risk of having so much US power (like a launch monopoly) sitting in the hands of one guy — not just because Trump's own chief of staff famously called Musk a "strange duck" (though history’s shapers often are), but because it's also a lot of concentrated risk across execution, competition, and regulation.

Anyway, let's now look at...

2. Anthropic

The SF-based AI pioneer just filed its confidential paperwork on Monday for a potential listing as early as October, seeking a possible $1T+ valuation.

Why? It's fun to beat Altman (see below), retain high-value employees, and raise massive piles of cash to build out your next-gen models and data centres. A more cynical view might be they're also cashing out at a frothy valuation, financing an unsustainable burn, and recycling cash back into their cloud provider investors, à la circular AI funding.

But we’re intrigued by the international implications, like…

First, after its spectacular Pentagon spat, Anthropic is now making Vatican cameos to position itself as the free world’s safe and good AI. And this avalanche of IPO cash might now help it not just extend its frontier lead, but also lock in US-led standards, export controls, and even bans on distillation (the technique China's rivals use to close the gap).

Second, the heavy Google and Amazon investor stakes in Anthropic arguably now create a deep US hyperscaler flywheel: Anthropic gets compute priority, Big Tech locks in model access + cloud revenue, and the result is an integrated AI stack advantage that'd be tough for anyone (including China) to match, other than maybe...

3. OpenAI

With a jury tossing Elon's lawsuit, OpenAI's Sam Altman now has a path to IPO as early as September — he'll want to beat Anthropic’s Amodei for ego (the two couldn’t even hold hands in India), but also money (nobody wants to be last to the well), particularly now that Anthropic’s epic Claude growth means its monthly revenue has doubled OpenAI’s!

But notwithstanding OpenAI's legit consumer strength, we'd just add this nuance: Altman's patriotism / negotiation skills / ethical flexibility (you choose) means OpenAI is now the Pentagon's preferred partner, with a massive upside: those sweet sweet DoD contracts. But it might also mean more brand risk ahead, both at home or abroad.

Then let's wrap with...

4. Google

Okay, not an IPO, but when Google raises a cool $80B on a random Tuesday, featuring a $10B Berkshire anchor as the ultimate vote of confidence, it's worth a look.

As with the others above, its first major raise in a decade is about financing Google's massive AI buildout ($190B this year) to meet its cool $460B cloud contract backlog.

As for the international implications? This war-chest may well help strengthen America's integrated tech dominance, and widen its moat against China, but in doing so this might also just heighten the stakes for some of Google’s existing risks: it still gets virtually all its AI chips from Taiwan, for example, and continues to face relentless EU regulatory fire, with massive new penalties rumoured to be imminent.

Sound even smarter:

• There’ve been fun memes suggesting this week’s 13% Bitcoin crash merely reflects Elon fans selling their crypto to buy SpaceX. Another trigger might’ve been billionaire Michael “never sell your Bitcoin” Saylor selling a few coins.

• Continuing the AI boom, South Korea just overtook India in market cap terms, barely a week after Taiwan made the same jump ahead.

• The hype around these firms aside, ~110 other companies have already filed for US IPOs this year, towards a projected ~200 total, the busiest since 2021.