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Intrigue

Daily flyovers

Latest news for 3 November 2026

Quick hits of consequential news from all corners of the world.

  1. 01

    IRAN

    Strikes and signals.

    The US has claimed hits on Iran’s strategic Qeshm Island in Hormuz, reportedly in response to another Iranian attempt on US assets. Meanwhile, JD Vance is voicing optimism that a deal could be close. (Guardian)

    Comment: Just keep in mind that Vance is the same guy who launched the failed deal back in June, plus he has an incentive to sound optimistic ahead of midterms that might punish his party for record US fuel prices. We’re also tracking reports that Syria could join the Saudi-led ‘Mecca’ defence pact with Pakistan and Turkey, though the whole pact is still more signalling than shooting at this stage.

  2. 02

    UNITED NATIONS

    Latvia’s debut.

    NATO member Latvia has now officially assumed the powerful UN Security Council’s rotating monthly presidency for the first time, setting artificial intelligence and international law as key priorities while calling for an emergency session over Russia’s latest hit on an aid centre that’s left at least 29 Ukrainians dead. (AA)

    Comment: It’s tricky timing because Moscow, which has previously occupied Latvia (among other neighbours), is reportedly signalling it’ll boycott some of Latvia’s efforts, including any straw poll to finally pick a replacement for UN chief António Guterres by December 31st. So it might push that race into December, at which point we wonder if recent dark-horse candidates from the UAE and Turkey might nudge everyone back to just locking someone in from the original crop of contenders from Latin America & The Caribbean, whose turn it should now be by tradition.

  3. 03

    HAITI

    White flag?

    The infamous leader of Haiti’s powerful 400 Mawozo gang (Wilson Joseph) wants UN mediation to find a “peaceful solution” to Haiti’s crisis. (ABC)

    Comment: Joseph cites — and El Salvador’s Bukele highlights — fears of the 2,000 Salvadoran troops now searching for their four missing comrades, but we struggle to take this entirely at face value. This guy, with a brutal record of mass kidnappings and violence, is going to fear 2,000 troops but not similar-sized gangs? We wonder if it’s more about positioning himself as a legitimate stakeholder in Haiti’s on-again-off-again political talks.

  4. 04

    BELGIUM

    It’s called the Belgian dip.

    The king has deferred a decision on whether to accept PM de Wever’s resignation after weekend budget negotiations collapsed over a $11B fiscal gap. (AP)

    Comment: In what’s becoming a familiar backstory, a fragile coalition (spanning nationalists, liberals, and social democrats) is now fracturing over whether you cut social spending or raise taxes on the wealthy. With public debt already above 108% of GDP, and Belgian borrowing costs now at 15-year highs, doing nothing is a pricey option.

  5. 05

    RWANDA

    Off the list.

    Kigali is yet to respond to DC’s announcement that the US will strip both Rwanda and South Africa from their quarter-century of duty-free trade access from 2027. (Reuters)

    Comment: The US has framed both moves around standard bureaucratic criteria, but it’s more likely an attempt to raise the costs both on Rwanda for its support for the M23 group destabilising Congo, plus on South Africa for its embrace of BRICS adversaries.

  6. 06

    SIERRA LEONE

    Millions on the table.

    Freetown is yet to respond after Dutch authorities dangled — and actively flooded local media with — a record $2.2M bounty targeting Europe’s most wanted cocaine kingpin, Jos Leijdekkers. He’s reportedly operating with near-total impunity in Sierra Leone’s capital. (BBC)

    Comment: It’s a savvy move for the Dutch to effectively outsource their manhunt by making this guy’s capture worth more than his bribes. It comes as broader West Africa’s coastal region solidifies as a key transit hub for cartels looking to sell into Europe.

  7. 07

    ANTIGUA & BARBUDA

    Summit season.

    Leaders from the Commonwealth (56 mostly ex-British colonies) are in Antigua & Barbuda for their biennial summit, with British PM Andy Burnham hoping his “debt reset” proposal might fend off African/Caribbean calls for slavery reparations. (Independent)

    Comment: Burnham is in a classic foreign-domestic wedge, with his own conservative rival back home (British-Nigerian Kemi Badenoch) dismissing the reparation calls as “another navel-gazing distraction” Britain can’t afford.