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Intrigue

Daily flyovers

Latest news for 28 October 2026

Quick hits of consequential news from all corners of the world.

  1. 01

    ISRAEL

    Bibi rebuked but not out.

    With the count continuing, Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition bloc now looks neck and neck with Netanyahu’s conservative-right coalition, which has lost ~10 or so seats. But neither side has an outright 61-seat majority, meaning power is still ultimately up for grabs, depending on final numbers and the next few weeks of coalition horse-trading. The election saw Israel’s highest turnout in decades (77.7%), with Arab-majority parties on track to potentially double their last 10 seats in the Knesset. (Jerusalem Post)

    Comment: Israel’s coalition math means a loss for Bibi isn’t an automatic win for Eisenkot; and if we’ve learned anything about Israel’s longest-serving leader over the years, it’s that he thrives in this sort of post-election paralysis. Given both candidates are pretty hawkish, the end result now seems less about whether Israel will change tack abroad, and more about whether it can remain stable at home, and perhaps whether a new leader might give erstwhile partners and allies the pretext to re-engage.

  2. 02

    FINLAND

    …and Norway talk to Putin.

    Europe is sounding divided in response to Finland’s Stubb and Norway’s Støre holding a surprise 90-minute call with Russia’s Putin, framed as working towards “future negotiations to help to end the war”. Ukraine’s Zelensky had just met Stubb and Støre in Oslo last week, along with Trump envoy Steve Witkoff. (BBC)

    Comment: We can understand feeling irked at a lack of any heads-up, but keep in mind Stubb and Støre are no Putin doves, while Poland’s own Tusk is saying he’s “moderately optimistic”. Our money is on another direct, working-level Russo-Ukraine negotiation in Abu Dhabi next month, all around the *possibility* of the two foes signing something at the upcoming APEC or G20 (perhaps freezing current lines, backed by some kind of Western security guarantee). But our doubt remains whether, absent clear defeat, any pause might simply give Putin breathing space to re-arm.

  3. 03

    SAUDI ARABIA

    Not now, Houthis.

    Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis have claimed another hit on Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery, Ras Tanura. The Saudis have yet to comment, though their silence is starting to sound like confirmation. (AA)

    Comment: Markets aren’t waiting for Saudi confirmation, sending crude up another 1.62%.

  4. 04

    JORDAN

    Airstrikes on Syria?

    The Jordanian air force has struck alleged ISIS hideouts in southern Syria, claiming a connection to last Friday’s massacre that left nine dead at a Jordanian church. Amman says it conducted the airstrikes in coordination with Syria, something Damascus itself is denying (perhaps to manage its own internal factions, and/or distance itself from reported civilian deaths). (Reuters)

    Comment: Jordan’s King Abdullah II promised an “iron fist” response to Friday’s massacre, perhaps calculating that a high-profile show of force might help suppress sectarian anxiety at home. Meanwhile, the move now unexpectedly aligns Jordan with neighbouring Israel, which has also hit targets in southern Syria claiming similar terrorist threats (prompting criticism from Jordan).

  5. 05

    TIMOR LESTE

    Bad blood gas.

    Australian energy giant Woodside has announced it’ll sell its 33% stake in Timor’s Greater Sunrise gas project to Dili’s state-owned energy firm. Timor has pledged to continue plans to process the gas on its own southern coast, despite lingering doubts around the idea’s commercial viability. (ABC)

    Comment: The question is whether China will now step up to cover the funding gap left by Woodside. That’d be a worst-case scenario for Canberra, which has attempted to hug Timor tighter amid greater competition from Beijing. But speaking of which…

  6. 06

    SRI LANKA

    Easy does it.

    Beijing’s state-owned China Merchants Port Holdings has pulled out of a $392M port logistics hub in Colombo, citing delays and changing market conditions. It was meant to be completed by the end of 2025. (The Diplomat)

    Comment: This is partly just a story of how excessive red tape can cost emerging economies a critical trade project, but it’s also a signal that maybe in today’s tighter budgetary environment, China might be quicker to cut its losses on underperforming investments.

  7. 07

    JAPAN

    Register here.

    The Japanese government is considering requiring lobbyists working on behalf of foreign governments to register as foreign agents as part of its push to revamp local counterespionage efforts. (Japan Times)

    Comment: Japan is really playing catch-up here, after Australia (2018), the UK (2023), and Canada (2024) modernised DC’s own earlier ‘foreign interference’ concept in hopes of adapting to modern grey-zone tactics.