Latest news for 18 September 2026

UNITED STATES

Tariff stick.

As we foreshadowed, Congress has now passed its big bipartisan sanctions bill, which President Trump is now expected to sign. It’s designed to empower (though not require) the president to impose tariffs of up to 100% on nations (principally China and India) still financing Putin’s invasion of Ukraine via energy deals. (PBS)

Comment: It’s the biggest dose of Putin pressure Congress has passed in two years, but it now leaves a diplomacy grenade on Trump’s desk: actually pulling the pin would blow up his China trade talks and risk a re-do of Beijing’s painful critical minerals curbs, so it’s hard to see that happening. The same move *could* be more effective against India, assuming the US could endure retaliation against its ag, machinery, and tech longer than India could withstand wipeout across textiles and gems. The other line you’ll hear is this risks pushing India closer to China, but that’s harder to swallow given the current state of China-India ties.

SAUDI ARABIA

Jet set.

DC has started the process for a $24.3B sale of F-35 ‌Lightning II fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, the Kingdom’s first shot at the West’s only in-production fifth-gen fighter. Lawmakers now have 30 days to try and kill the idea, which would fulfil a longstanding request from Riyadh. (AA)

Comment: The Saudis have long chased this jet as an Iran hedge, but DC has dragged its feet over Yemen/Khashoggi optics, Israel’s need to preserve its own regional edge, and fears the plane’s secret tech could wander. So… why now give the green light? It looks a lot like an attempt to mollify Riyadh after DC declined to intervene against the Houthis.

CHINA

Get a grip.

Beijing has reportedly asked Iran to rein in its Yemen-based Houthi allies, in response to a request by Saudi Arabia. (Reuters)

Comment: While Beijing might privately enjoy seeing its US rival bogged down in Iran, this contagion to the other side of the peninsula now expands the Middle Eastern supply risk to ~half of all China’s crude imports. As for the Saudis, it’s evidence they’re shopping mediators amid a realisation the US won’t (or can’t?) get involved in Yemen. And as for the US? Wall Street royalty (JPMorgan) just generated some buzz with its latest blunt oil memo, warning “we simply don’t know how to model the endgame.”

JAPAN

Back to 1995?

The Bank of Japan bumped its benchmark rate up to a generational high of 1.25% earlier today (Friday), in a widely anticipated move to head off inflation and stop the yen from sliding further. And yet… the yen lost another ~0.5%! (Bloomberg $)

Comment: Here’s how to square that circle: the rate rise was already priced in by this point. Rather, what surprised markets was the BoJ’s two dissents, and the related inference that there may not be any more hikes on the horizon. We recently explored the role of US Treasury Secretary Bessent in all this. Meanwhile, PM Takaichi just kept her main market-facing ministers in place amid her first cabinet reshuffle, in a show of confidence to investors.

AUSTRALIA

Take those glasses off.

Officials are mulling a ban on smart recording glasses in government workplaces, citing privacy and national security concerns. (Guardian)

Comment: Coming after last year’s big social media age limits, Australia keeps volunteering as the rich, middle-power democracy to set tech rules. This latest one won’t stop a hostile intel service, and seems aimed more at casual / incidental risks. Plus the limited scope (government buildings) hints at an attempt to set the direction without picking another Meta fight.

TIMOR LESTE

Wait for sunrise.

Dili has pushed back the production timeline for its flagship Greater Sunrise gas project by another two years, now to 2034. (The Star)

Comment: Southeast Asia’s poorest state has lost a generation stuck in talks — first in maritime border negotiations with Australia (which famously got caught spying), and now with Australia’s Woodside Energy over whether to pipe the gas Down Under or build a costly plant in Timor. It’s an example of the sheer technical, financial, and political friction smaller states can face between wanting speed versus wanting control.

EGYPT

Rage through cartoons.

A Facebook page inspired by the US cartoon SpongeBob SquarePants has racked up nearly two million followers for its satirical depiction of life in modern Egypt. The cartoons, generated with AI, poke fun at the high cost of living, intractable traffic, and even President al-Sisi’s corruption. (BBC)

Comment: Government mouthpieces have gone into overdrive to denounce the parody as an anti-government plot, but take it as a reminder that absent other pressure valves, it’ll end up with your face on the body of Mr Krabs.

UNITED NATIONS

War crimes.

A UN Human Rights Council-appointed panel has found “reasonable grounds” to believe the US has committed war crimes in Iran, citing airstrikes on an elementary school in Minab, and a sports complex in Lamerd. DC has rejected the report and its HRC parent body as “spouting unserious nonsense”, arguing the only war criminal here is Iran. (UN)