Latest news for 10 August 2026

IRAN

Hormuz still on hold.

The regime in Iran is now signalling it’s in the “final stages” of a new shipping-route arrangement with neighbouring Oman, though warns full Hormuz reopening still hinges on the US making major concessions: unfreeze assets, lift sanctions, withdraw forces, end the blockade, and halt all hits on Iran’s proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, etc). (Guardian)

Comment: Iran now seems to sniff opportunity in the air, aided by President Trump’s own public hunger for a deal, plus public debate around the depth of DC’s own munitions shortage. Against that backdrop, there’s little surprising about the regime now dialling its demands up to 11. And unless Trump can pull a rabbit out of a hat (amid reports he’s running out of both rabbits and hats), the mullahs seem intent on making him the second US president to lose key elections (midterms) over failures in Iran.

RUSSIA

Kicked out of Syria?

Syria’s foreign ministry says it’s now allowed Russia to regain control of Hmeimem air base and Tartus naval base. Under the agreement, Syria will administer the civilian portions, while Russia and Syria will jointly run the remainder as ✌️training centres✌️. (AP)Comment: Those sassy air quotes are because Putin is happy for the Syrians to slap whatever they want on the label, so long as he regains access to Russia’s only port on the Mediterranean (plus one of Russia’s rare warm-water ports anywhere). The reality is Syria’s new rulers also need to manage this branding carefully, given Putin’s own decades of support for the Assad regime and its atrocities.

ISRAEL

Bibi ditches Trump plan.

Prime Minister Netanyahu has turned down President Trump’s latest 15-point plan for Gaza, insisting Israeli forces won’t withdraw until Hamas disarms completely (the IDF still holds ~60% of the Strip). (CNN)Comment: Nobody likes a told-you-so, but darnit, we flagged our doubts back when Trump first made the announcement. It’s hard to see Bibi ever making (or being seen to make) any concessions on this front, let alone while he’s lagging in the polls ahead of October’s elections. Plus Trump’s own midterm challenge will increasingly distract DC ahead of November.

MYANMAR

Proof of life.

Myanmar’s military rulers have dismissed a renewed call from ASEAN to release Aung San Suu Kyi, the democratically elected leader ousted in the 2021 coup. Interestingly, however, the junta has now released four proof-of-life photos and allowed a Red Cross visit. (FT $)

Comment: As always, we ask why now? And wouldn’t you know it, but Myanmar’s dictator just returned from a big visit to Thailand, which has long called for a “calibrated re-engagement” with Myanmar. So it all looks like a well-planned PR campaign to appear more palatable to foreign powers still sitting on the fence: Thailand is hosting these guys, who are themselves now heeding calls around Aung’s wellbeing, so maybe let’s all just hold our nose and normalise ties?

TURKEY

Mind if I join?

Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey have announced a new NATO-style defence pact, with an attack on one seen as an attack on all. It builds on last year’s initial Saudi-Pakistan deal, with Egypt rumoured to be next. (BBC)

Comment: They’re all varying types of US allies, just as the US shows reluctance (Europe) and/or inability (the Gulf) to protect its friends. So absent a credible US umbrella up above, this kind of horizontal matching will only become more common. But this particular new alliance trio will soon face some familiar tests, like a) Houthi drones just hit a Saudi Aramco refinery, and b) Iran is already warning this new alliance won’t make the rival Saudis any safer. Plus, will Turkish and/or Pakistani deterrence be able to succeed where US might has frayed?

COLOMBIA

El Tigre takes the sash.

Replacing the populist-left Petro, hard-right outsider Abelardo ‘El Tigre’ de la Espriella has taken the oath of office in front of Spain’s King Felipe VI, Argentina’s Milei, Ecuador’s Noboa, Chile’s Kast, and FIFA’s Infantino (who should really resign rather than swan around like a world leader). The US has signalled support by pledging $1B in security aid (pending Congress) and welcoming Colombia into Trump’s Shield of the Americas. (Al Jazeera)

Comment: There was plenty of symbolism in Tigre’s decision to take office in Cali rather than the capital, Bogotá — it’s a show of force, signalling his intent to reassert control in Colombia’s volatile southwest. Channelling his inner Bukele, he’s now pledging to bomb cocaine labs and build mega-prisons, but we’ve long flagged that Colombia is hardly an El Salvador, which is 1/54th the size, and with a criminal landscape 1/100th as complex. Colombian armed groups have already responded with two bombs nearby.

SERBIA

Zelensky drops in.

Ukraine’s Zelensky has made his first official visit to Belgrade, receiving a full honour-guard welcome from Serbia’s Russia-friendly Vučić. (Le Monde)

Comment: Trade and aid talk aside, it’s really a PR win for Ukraine: even the most Putin-friendly states can be brought around. But it’s not just PR: Zelensky also wants to keep his critical Danube export bypass humming given all the wartime disruption to Ukraine’s traditional Black Sea export hubs. As for Vučić? He still remains the ultimate balancer — EU candidate by day, Russian-energy client by night. Hosting Zelensky with pomp (while refusing to join sanctions on Putin) shows how far he’s willing to lean West for practical gains without fully burning the Moscow bridge.

TAIWAN

Internet shutdown drill.

Taipei has deliberately throttled its own internet for the first time as part of an attack simulation on Taiwan’s telecoms infrastructure. It comes as Taiwan’s cabinet prepares to increase the democracy’s defence budget by 16%, crossing the $1T line. (Reuters)