Latest news for 28 July 2026

IRAN

The latest.

A fragile and unofficial US-Iran pause is still holding, with President Trump reporting the US is “having good talks” with Tehran. For its part, Iran still says it’s in control of Hormuz, and is rejecting claims of any direct US talks, while seemingly testing the truce: US partners Israel, Jordan, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia have all reported drone attacks on their territory, possibly from proxies. (Reuters)

UNITED STATES

Open model crossfire.

After his absence from Friday’s big Silicon Valley open letter against bans on open AI models, Anthropic’s Dario Amodei has argued that while open models do foster innovation, unchecked releases pose unique risks. The answer, he says, is to curb authoritarian access to advanced chips, crack down on mass distillation (copying), and ensure every capable AI model — open or not — goes through mandatory safety testing. His critics argue he’s just fearmongering to get competitors hit by regulation. (Anthropic)

Comment: This whole US fight is happening while its AI giants feel the heat from all directions: enterprise buyers at home are getting stingier with their token spending, while China’s Kimi K3 just shared its own weights for free; meanwhile, China’s CXMT chipmaker just surged ~500% on IPO, Beijing just rejected DC’s distillation claims, and (per below) the West’s lithography moat might already be leaking. And that’s just one day!

AUSTRALIA

Refined tastes.

Canberra has announced a feasibility study for a new refinery in the state of Western Australia. If greenlit, Australia’s third oil refinery would be its first new one in 60 years. (gov.au)Comment: To be clear, it’s just an announcement — of a study — and Australia would still rely on imported crude inputs for any new refinery. But add it to the list of capitals rethinking every energy vulnerability in the wake of the Hormuz squeeze.

FRANCE

“Worst since WWII”.

President Macron has visited frontline emergency crews in southwestern France, after mobilising military reserves and requesting EU air support for what he’s declaring France’s worst wildfires in the post-war era. Next door, Spain is also battling its own record-breaking blazes, pushing combined evacuations across both countries past 330,000. (France24)

Comment: We explored Europe’s heatwaves last week.

CAMEROON

Pay up.

An International Chamber of Commerce arbitration tribunal in Paris has ordered Yaoundé to pay Australian miner Sundance Resources $616M in damages after Cameroon’s government unlawfully handed the firm’s Mbalam-Nabeba iron ore rights to a China-backed rival. (mining.com)

Comment: It’s been a bitter six-year saga for Sundance, but this ruling is half the battle — actually collecting that $616M will be another headache. Combined with word South Africa’s Impala Platinum has now had to pause operations following a deadly accident, it’s been a day for recalling that Africa’s huge and fast-growing resource sector still carries risk.

NETHERLANDS

Lithography breakthrough.

Shares in Dutch chip-machine pioneer ASML tumbled almost 8% intraday on Monday following reports a state-backed consortium in China is now making its own immersion deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography tools. (Barrons)

Comment: Output remains modest for now, and this is not ASML’s *extreme*ultraviolet tech (EUV) crown jewel. But it’s still an example of the exact outcome US tech controls were meant to prevent: by curbing China’s access, the US just spurred Beijing to chase import substitution instead. Even these inferior DUV machines put China on a path to self-sufficiency in what’s really the workhorse for global chipmaking, posing risks to ASML earnings. That’s why investors have wobbled, though the scale suggests many are still selling the headline.