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Intrigue

Daily flyovers

Latest news for 9 July 2026

Quick hits of consequential news from all corners of the world.

  1. 01

    IRAN

    Bad neighbours.

    Iran has just described its second consecutive night of missile and drone strikes (on Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar) as targeting “US bases and strategic centres” in response to US strikes. The unravelling of the fragile US-Iran ceasefire has sent oil prices back up into the high 70s. (BBC)

    Comment: Iran is dusting off its horizontal escalation playbook — raising the costs on US allies and partners — to drive the US back to the negotiating table. With oil prices rising and US strategic petroleum reserves dropping to their lowest levels since 1983, the decisive factor could end up being closer to home.

  2. 02

    INDONESIA

    Holding steady?

    The IMF’s latest world economic outlook has held Indonesia steady at a projected 5% growth this year, amid mildly slower global projections over Iran, energy, and policy uncertainty. (IMF)

    Comment: That’s solid news for Indonesia after a brutal few months of headlines, from a plunging rupiah to looming macro credibility concerns. The key Jakarta Composite index is also down 31% this year as both S&P Dow Jones and MSCI mull the possibility of an ‘emerging’ → ‘frontier’ downgrade over transparency concerns.

  3. 03

    KENYA

    Dangote goes east.

    Nigeria’s Dangote oil giant has announced plans to build East Africa’s largest oil refinery in Kenya’s Lamu, using a mix of cash, bonds, and an IPO to finance the proposed 700k barrels-per-day $17B asset. The move follows Dangote’s successful (if late and pricey) new massive refinery in Lagos. (Forbes Africa)

    Comment: Lots of ambition on display here, with Kenya hustling to reduce its import dependencies, while Dangote races to build a pan-African refining footprint. The Lagos project shows the execution risks, and Dangote loves big announcements, but if successful, this could reshape regional energy security: shorter supply chains, lower logistical costs, and less exposure to international volatility.

  4. 04

    SAUDI ARABIA

    Gulf payments freeze.

    Businesses are reporting that the Saudi central bank has started randomly blocking payments to accounts based in the rival UAE. The bank itself denies this. (FT $)

    Comment: It’s drawing attention because it suggests the Saudis are expanding the toxic Emirati rivalry, beyond the UAE’s shock exit from the Saudi-dominated OPEC, and even beyond their years of proxy war in Yemen, to now disrupt regular trade.

  5. 05

    ALGERIA

    Apostille arrives.

    The Hague Apostille Convention officially enters force for Algeria today (Thurs), enabling the rapid certification of corporate and other public documents in lieu of the more lengthy, bureaucratic, multi-step alternatives. (APS)

    Comment: The treaty’s 128th member, it’s a small but practical win for anyone engaged in cross-border business, education, and migration with Algeria. But thoughts and prayers for Algiers embassies about to get swamped with apostille requests.

  6. 06

    MEXICO

    You crossed a line.

    President Sheinbaum has announced Mexico is investigating whether the US violated its sovereignty during the 2024 capture of Sinaloa cartel boss ‘El Mayo’. (Mexico ND)

    Comment: We flagged at the time there was clearly something fishy about a top cartel boss landing at a Texas airstrip like some kind of Amazon package for waiting US law enforcement officials. Later plea deals revealed he was kidnapped and drugged by unidentified armed men. But the interesting thing for us is why Mexico wants to re-hash this now — we’ve always observed a degree of plausible deniability to protect Mexico’s successive administrations from political blowback around close US cooperation, but recent protests suggest maybe genuine lines are being crossed.

  7. 07

    UKRAINE

    Patriot production.

    To close the loop on yesterday’s NATO wrap, President Trump has agreed to grant Ukraine a license to make its own Patriot air-defence interceptors. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK (and popular former top commander) has published a spicy op-ed warning folks not to assume Russia has lost the war. (RFE)

    Comment: The Patriots could eventually curb Putin’s long-range missile advantage plus Kyiv’s vulnerability to US bottlenecks, but it’ll take time and tech transfers to get meaningful numbers online. As for the op-ed, it’s spicy because a) it reiterates the stalemate view that got him exiled as ambassador back in 2024, and b) it matches reports in Ukrainian media that he’s told President Zelensky he’d run for the top job if elections were called. But neither leader would go easy on Russia, where the fuel crisis continues.