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Intrigue

Daily flyovers

Latest news for 22 May 2026

Quick hits of consequential news from all corners of the world.

  1. 01

    IRAN

    The latest.

    Iran is reportedly in talks with Oman (which Trump 1.0 designated a US Major Non-NATO Ally) on the possibility of slapping a shared toll system on the Strait of Hormuz, though Oman’s views remain unclear. Meanwhile, Iran’s supreme leader has declared Iran’s highly enriched uranium must stay in the country. (NYT $)

    Comment: So… with the regime here openly and defiantly doubling down against DC’s red-lines (nukes and Hormuz), it’s hard to see any imminent offramp.

  2. 02

    TAIWAN

    Arms sales on hold.

    A senior US official has indicated the US is pausing its pending $14B arms sale to Taiwan, citing a need to prioritise armaments for the war in Iran. (The Hill)

    Comment: This might suggest a) the Iran war ain’t over (see above), b) US munitions scarcity is real, and/or c) Trump wasn’t bluffing when he flagged arms sales to Taiwan could be a “negotiating chip” with China.

  3. 03

    CHINA

    North Korea trip?

    Beijing’s advance teams (security and protocol) have been appearing in Pyongyang this week, lending credence to South Korean reports that President Xi could be visiting the hermit North as early as next week. (Yonhap)

    Comment: Hot on the heels of this week’s Putin visit, a rare Xi trip to North Korea (the first since 2019) might be a way to project both a) active management of the peninsula and b) his own heft as the indispensable power that can talk to all sides.

  4. 04

    TURKEY

    Opposition leader removed.

    A Turkish court has removed opposition leader Ozgur Ozel as party chair, hobbling Erdoğan’s most recognisable rival (among those not yet in prison). Ozel is vowing to appeal, but Turkish stocks dropped 6% on the ruling, while the central bank intervened (again) to limit the lira’s slide. (Al Monitor)

    Comment: This is a familiar playbook: remove a popular opposition figure without attacking the party itself, then watch as the opposition tears itself apart under a more controversial new replacement. Familiar or not, the markets don’t like it.

  5. 05

    INDONESIA

    Export expert.

    Palm oil prices have tumbled amid confusion over President Prabowo’s plans to bolster state control over key commodity exports, including the edible oil and coal. Jakarta is expected to clarify via further regulations today (Friday) (Bloomberg $).

    Comment: When we first flagged Prabowo’s speech on Wednesday, we noted it was likely an attempt to tackle tax evasion, bolster Indonesia’s dwindling Hormuz-era reserves and rupiah, and centralise control. But as details emerge, it’s shaping up as a historic state intervention, with key exports getting rerouted through a new state-owned company! And that’s rattled Indonesia’s powerful tycoons, who Prabowo has long accused of plunder. It’s too early to tell whether he’s steering Indonesia back to — or away from — another Asian Financial Crisis (which also triggered a political crisis).

  6. 06

    VENEZUELA

    Uranium removed.

    The US removed a cargo of enriched uranium last week, but not from Iran. Rather, it turns out the US, UK, and Venezuela relocated the last 13kg of highly enriched uranium to the US from a long-shuttered research reactor. (US DoS)

    Comment: The uranium wasn’t weapons-grade, and there was no doubt around its civilian use, so why remove it? It could be a) removing legacy stockpiles is a core US non-proliferation pillar; b) it’s another low-cost concession for post-Maduro Venezuela to stabilise US ties; c) it might also help DC distract from a lack of progress on Iran; and d) we also wonder if it relates to Hezbollah’s Maduro-era presence.

  7. 07

    AUSTRIA

    Spying for Russia.

    A jury has found former intelligence officer Egisto Ott guilty of collecting and handing over to Russia vast reams of state secrets and personal data from police databases from 2015 to 2020. Ott has denied the charges. (Reuters)

    Comment: Leaving the Ott specifics aside, insiders will tell you there’s little surprising here: Vienna has long been Europe’s espionage capital, not just as home to key HQs like OPEC and the IAEA, but also due to Austria’s decades of relative acquiescence to foreign intelligence activity on its soil (so long as it’s not directed at Austria).