Latest news for 20 May 2026

CANADA

US suspends defence board.

DC says it’s pausing the oldest formal Canada-US defence advisory body (founded in 1940), arguing Canada isn’t walking its defence talk. (Elbridge Colby via X)

Comment: The body (PJBD) is pretty ceremonial these days, with real cooperation happening via NORAD. So it’s a bit of political theatre to send a signal amid conflicting claims whether Canada has really hit the 2% defence spending threshold. Still, it’s a signal that’ll only fuel Canadian animosity towards Trump 2.0.

IRAN

Seriously?

The NYT is reporting that the original US-Israeli war-plan was to liberate hardline former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad from house arrest in Tehran, then install him as Iran’s new leader! Instead, airstrikes just injured him (or worse). (NYT $)

Comment: It’s really hard to understand what the US or Israel saw in a Holocaust-denier who famously and repeatedly yearned for Israel’s complete annihilation. The report claims Ahmadinejad himself was in on the plan, which *maybe* offers a *hint* of what’s going on: intelligence agencies sometimes seed stories in hopes of triggering or exacerbating regime infighting.

THAILAND

No more visas.

The Thai government is cancelling a scheme that allowed tourists from over 90 countries to visit visa-free for up to 60 days, citing crime and insecurity. (CNN)

Comment: It was a post-Covid idea, but Thailand might be learning a lesson Bali has already publicly bemoaned: quantity of visitors is one thing, but quality matters too.

CZECH REPUBLIC

Guestlist fight.

President Pavel and Prime Minister Babiš are in a public spat over who gets to represent the Czech Republic at July’s NATO meeting in Turkey. (Politico)

Comment: It’s all exposing not just the republic’s NATO faultline (pro-West Pavel vs populist Babiš), but also a constitutional one: while the president has a formal role abroad, it’s the PM who controls the purse-strings and accreditation.

INDONESIA

Export supervision.

Indonesia is planning a new state agency to oversee commodity exports. (Bloomberg $)

Comment: Jakarta has a few inter-related aims here: first, it’s about cracking down on tax evasion; second, it’s about faster and fuller repatriation of export dollars to defend reserves and stabilise the plunging rupiah; but third, it’s also Prabowo centralising power (the new agency will sit under the president’s new sovereign wealth fund). Relatedly, a spicy letter by China’s local business chamber on the difficulty of doing business has now triggered a ministerial meeting with China’s local ambassador.

LITHUANIA

What’s he playing at?

The Baltics keep reporting Ukrainian drones (presumably jammed) in their airspace: last week it was Latvia, yesterday it was Estonia, and today it’s been Lithuania. (LRT)

Comment: Why would Putin divert jammed Ukrainian drones towards these NATO and EU members? It’s a way to a) increase the costs of war on Ukraine’s partners, b) divide and destabilise the West, and c) potentially build pretext for some kind of escalation. It’s already working, with one government (Latvia) collapsing last week.

UNITED KINGDOM

Senior diplomat leaves post.

There’s fresh turmoil at the beleaguered UK embassy in DC, after its second-most senior diplomat, James Roscoe, abruptly left without explanation. Roscoe had served as interim ambassador after the sacking of Epstein associate Peter Mandelson. (Guardian)

KENYA

Strike halted.

Transport workers have halted their two-day strike over high fuel costs, to instead resume talks with the government. Nairobi is racing to contain the fallout after initial protests left four dead. (Independent)

Comment: Local diesel prices are up ~50% in just two months, yet it’s interesting how quickly the government started offering price concessions once things got deadly. Nairobi blames prices on the Iran War, while the opposition blames elite profiteering, noting landlocked Uganda gets cheaper prices despite using Kenyan ports!