Latest news for 27 March 2026

IRAN

Day 29.

As the will-he-won’t-he debate continues around a possible US ground operation, President Trump has announced he’s extending Iran’s deal deadline by another 10 days; his White House is now briefing journalists it might deploy another 10,000 troops; and Israel has now assassinated the head of Iran’s IRGC navy (a central figure in the Hormuz shutdown). Brent crude is now back up around ~$110 a barrel. (CNBC)

Comment: Next steps are still anyone’s guess, but the ‘vibe’ (whether actual or diversionary) is clearly shifting towards an operation to take a strategic island like Kharg (90% of Iran’s crude exports) or Larak / Abu Musa / Tunbs (strategic for controlling Hormuz). The term ‘knockout blow’ is doing the rounds, but we’ve explored the ways this thinking can spiral into a quagmire.

MEXICO

Cuba aid flotilla missing.

Mexico’s navy has launched a full search and rescue operation after the final two sailboats in a grassroots aid flotilla failed to reach Cuba as scheduled. With mostly Europeans and Americans on board, the ships haven’t made contact since leaving Mexico a week ago. (BBC)

Comment: Rough weather delayed a larger ship in the convoy by around three days.

PAKISTAN

War resumes.

Following a brief Eid-linked ceasefire, Pakistan has now resumed its military campaign against Taliban-led Afghanistan, vowing it’ll continue until Kabul reconsiders its alleged support for militant groups. (Arab News)

GERMANY

Piece of the pie.

A German frigate captain is under investigation for allegedly sharing a classified $390B list of 150 planned defence purchases with a defence lobbyist. (Euronews)

Comment: Any whiff of insecurity or corruption risks undermining public and allied confidence just as Berlin embarks on its historic re-armament amid Putin’s aggression.

MALAYSIA

Feeling the crunch.

Prime Minister Anwar has revealed Malaysian vessels can now transit the Strait of Hormuz after diplomatic outreach, but he’s still easing fuel quotas at home. (The Straits Times)

Comment: His quota moves are unlikely to help most Malaysians in the near term. Meanwhile, the French finance minister (Lescure) is now ringing alarm bells, declaring a major oil crisis now that Iran has damaged 30-40% of the Gulf refining capacity, requiring three years to repair.

UNITED STATES

Be our guest.

Four members of Russia’s rubber-stamp legislature are now on the first Duma visit to DC since Putin’s invasion, thanks to a State Department sanctions waiver issued at the request of a pro-rapprochement congresswoman. Moscow says it’s a “test meeting” with no fixed agenda, though Putin briefed them pre-departure. (NYT)

Comment: You may see reports these lawmakers are from “opposition” parties, but that word is doing a *lot* of heavy lifting — Putin has long erased any meaningful opposition, and all visiting parties still back his disastrous invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, Putin reportedly just met with oligarchs, personally urging them to make ‘voluntary’ contributions to Russia’s struggling wartime budget.

DR CONGO

Diversified assets.

It turns out the UAE has quietly secured effective control over several key mining licences across the Congo’s copper-cobalt heartland (Katanga). (Africa Intelligence)

Comment: For the UAE, it’s part of a broader strategy to leverage its deep pockets and elite networks to build resource security for a longer-term diversification away from petrostate status. And for the Congo, combined with recent West-friendly mining licenses, it all seems part of a strategy to rebalance away from China, which controls ~80% of Congolese critical minerals.