Latest news for 3 February 2026

TAIWAN

Not so fast.

US senators have expressed alarm after Taiwan’s more Beijing-friendly opposition advanced a bill to cap key parts of the democracy’s defence procurement at levels way below what Taipei and the Trump administration are seeking. (Bloomberg $)

Comment: On hold until after this month’s Lunar New Year break, opposition parties argue this bill is about fiscal responsibility and avoiding an unwinnable arms race with the mainland — there’s also the political angle of clipping the ruling party’s wings. Critics argue it’s undermining both a) Taiwan’s attempts at ‘porcupine’ deterrence, and b) the US-Taiwan ties that strengthen it. Meanwhile, there are also the optics of key Taiwanese opposition figures now visiting Beijing.

INDIA

You’ve got yourself a deal.

President Trump says he’s finalised a deal with India’s Modi, trimming US tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 18% and ditching the additional 25% penalty tied to India’s (slowing) Russian oil purchases. In return? He says India is pledging to buy up to $500B in — and grant more market access for — US goods. (BBC)

Comment: Trump ended up quietly granting tariff exemptions to vast segments of India’s export base where the US is still reliant (eg pharma). But the tariffs tied to Russian oil did bite, and you can see that in the numbers: Russia has now dropped from India’s top source to number three (behind Iraq and Saudi Arabia), with imports dropping a third in December alone. But it’s still a million bpd away from a full halt.

CHINA

More executions.

Authorities have executed four members of the infamous Bai family mafia found guilty of running Myanmar scam centres, days after executing 11 members of the Ming family mafia found guilty of related crimes. (BBC)

Comment: This swift and massive penalty not only plays to President Xi’s corruption crackdown (most scam victims have been nationals of China), but his netizens are also drawing contrasts with the impunity and delays around DC’s Epstein scandal.

RUSSIA

Succession.

If the rumours are to be believed, the leader of the semi-autonomous Chechen Republic (Kadyrov) is now on his deathbed with kidney failure. That complicates Putin’s succession plan for Chechnya, given Kadyrov’s son and heir apparent was seriously injured in a car accident last month. (RFE/RL)

UAE

Pre-inauguration donation?

The Emiratis are still refusing to comment on the Journal’s reporting that, just four days before Trump 2.0’s inauguration, an entity linked to the UAE’s ruling family bought a $500M stake in a crypto venture run by President Trump’s sons. (WSJ)

Comment: The White House is denying claims this $500M payment influenced Trump’s shock decision to sell the Emiratis the world’s most advanced AI chips.

CANADA

Uranium deal.

Canada and India are reportedly close to finalising a $3B uranium deal for Canada to supply India’s nuclear energy sector, ahead of PM Carney’s visit to India in March. (Forbes)

Comment: We’re old enough to remember 2008, when most major countries still refused to sell India uranium because of its shock 1974 nuclear test which, funnily enough, used a civilian reactor first built with partial Canadian assistance! That whole stand-off ended when the US finally granted India a waiver in late 2008. The more significant part of this new deal is whether (together with Canada’s new-ish PM) we’re seeing a reset in the famously frosty India-Canada ties.

COSTA RICA

Right win.

As we foreshadowed, the incumbent’s preferred conservative candidate, 39-year-old Laura Fernandez, has won Costa Rica’s presidential election, pledging to double-down on economic development and security. (Al Jazeera)

UNITED STATES

To the moon!

Elon Musk’s SpaceX has confirmed it’s buying umm… Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence startup xAI, in what could become the most valuable private company ever (over $1T). Meanwhile, Ukraine has thanked Musk for cracking down on Russia’s use of his Starlink satellites for drone attacks on Ukraine. (CNN)