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Intrigue

Daily flyovers

Latest news for 30 December 2025

Quick hits of consequential news from all corners of the world.

  1. 01

    CHINA

    Drills, baby drills.

    China has launched massive, live-fire military drills around Taiwan in its latest (and largest by surface area) "severe punishment for separatist forces”, while also warning "external forces" against "using Taiwan to contain China". (BBC)

    Comment: While Beijing has linked these drills to (ie blamed them on) the pre-Christmas US defence package for Taiwan, there are a couple of other timeframes Xi likely had in mind: first, between Christmas and the New Year, Western capitals are now in hibernation or focused on Ukraine — so it’s an ideal time to ratchet up pressure while minimising any blowback. And second, Trump wants wins out of his planned trip to China in April, so to the extent he responds publicly to these drills, it’ll be with one eye on keeping things steady with Beijing.

  2. 02

    UKRAINE

    Almost there?

    Presidents Trump and Zelensky are sounding optimistic after their Sunday talks at Mar-a-Lago, declaring agreement on ~90% of the latest 20-point peace plan, including on Western security guarantees. Trump says the main sticking point is still around land, given Putin wants turf he hasn’t managed to invade. (The Hill)

    Comment: As for whether Putin will agree? His whole approach reminds us of the old Soviet quip that they were committed to negotiations (and would stretch them out until Doomsday). And right on time, the Kremlin now appears to have made false claims of an attack on a Putin residence — nearby residents have told local outlets they didn’t hear a thing, so the claim looks like an attempt to a) undermine Zelensky’s US talks, b) justify Russian attacks on Ukraine’s leadership, or c) probably both.

  3. 03

    NORTH KOREA

    Boom.

    According to state media, dictator Kim Jong Un has test-fired long-range strategic cruise missiles, just after flexing more progress towards his first nuclear-powered submarine. (NBC)

    Comment: Kim’s democratic rival in the South (Lee) rose to power promising more outreach to the North — in return, he’s now received periodic insults and flexes. Meanwhile, there are intriguing rumours the Russian arms ship which mysteriously sank off Spain last year might’ve been carrying nuclear reactors for Kim’s subs! Sabotaging such a shipment would be an easy (if risky) way to delay Kim’s progress.

  4. 04

    ISRAEL

    Friends and neighbours.

    Following their tenth leader-level summit in Jerusalem last week, Israel, Cyprus, and Greece have now agreed to increase joint naval and air exercises in the eastern Mediterranean from 2026. (Al-Monitor)

    Comment: You barely need to squint to see what’s right there between the lines: these three neighbours all share a common rival in Turkey. Officials out of Ankara are publicly downplaying the news, but some in the Turkish media are already portraying the opposing trio as an “alliance of evil”.

  5. 05

    EUROPEAN UNION

    Not cool.

    The EU and China have joined a host of other Middle Eastern and African countries in expressing solidarity with Somalia, after Israel became the first UN member state to formally recognise the self-ruled breakaway region of Somaliland. Critics argue Israel’s move undermines Somalia’s territorial integrity. (DW)

    Comment: Why would Israel recognise Somaliland? The coastal strip has a strategic location (on the Gulf of Aden), and offers Israel a way to counter Turkey’s growing influence over broader Somalia. It’s also classic Israeli periphery doctrine: back fellow minorities in a hostile region to distract and divide the dominant. Meanwhile, just over the Gulf, Saudi jets have hit targets in Yemen’s port of Mukalla — it looks like a response to the lightning expansion by Emirati-backed forces earlier this month.

  6. 06

    PANAMA

    Monumental drama.

    China is urging Panama to investigate why a local government tore down a monument in honour of the Chinese workers who helped build the Panama Canal. Authorities in Arraijan are citing safety issues and an expired land permit. (Reuters)

    Comment: Ordinarily you might handle this kind of provincial snafu via back-channels, but that gets trickier amid a broader tug-of-war over the Canal — the proposed sale of Canal ports to a US-led consortium seems to have hit a big snag, with Beijing threatening to block the sale unless its own state-owned COSCO shipping giant gets a majority stake.

  7. 07

    IRAN

    To the streets.

    Protests have broken out across Tehran and other cities in Iran, after the national currency hit a new low over the weekend while annual inflation hit 42%. (NYT $)

    Comment: It’s been a rough year for the mullahs, who’ve watched as the Israelis dismantled their proxy network, the Americans hit their nuclear sites, tighter sanctions hit their coffers, and a drought even hit their urban water supplies. Tehran has hustled for answers (like deleting zeros from its beleaguered currency), but the reality is Iran’s economy won’t stabilise until its regime normalises.