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Intrigue

Daily flyovers

Latest news for 19 December 2025

Quick hits of consequential news from all corners of the world.

  1. 01

    UNITED STATES

    We got a TikTok deal.

    After months of wrangling, TikTok has agreed to move its US operations to a new joint venture to avoid a threatened US ban. The new JV will reportedly be majority US-owned (including via Oracle and Silver Lake) and governed by a majority US-board. Other players getting a slice include state-owned Emirati investor MGX with 15%, and existing China-based parent company Bytedance with 19.9%. (CNBC)

    Comment: So… who wins? TikTok survives in the US, and the US-dominated structure (including Oracle-controlled data) allays many of the natsec concerns. The remaining unease is now around the fact the China-based parent company still retains ownership of TikTok’s secret sauce (the algorithm), even if it’s now trained on US data.

  2. 02

    EUROPEAN UNION

    Sign later.

    EU leaders have pulled a last-minute delay on signing their landmark trade deal with South America’s Mercosur bloc, following pushback from local farmers protesting against cheap imports from Latin America. (Politico)

    Comment: This deal has been in the works for a quarter century, and at this point, everyone’s wondering whether the EU’s own centrifugal forces are stronger than any collective desire to get this thing done. Coming the same week as the EU struggles over its approach to Russian assets, the bloc is sending some pretty mid signals.

  3. 03

    TAIWAN

    Up in arms.

    Washington has approved one of its largest-ever defence packages for Taiwan, including $11B in missiles, drones, and artillery systems. (Bloomberg $)

    Comment: Beijing has reiterated its usual opposition to these sales, which follow a 1979 law obligating the US to provide the self-governing island with defensive arms to resist force (from China). But this bump in size suggests the porcupine strategy remains key: deterrence by denial, making any invasion prohibitively costly.

  4. 04

    UNITED KINGDOM

    New guy in town.

    The Starmer government has appointed a new envoy to DC, career diplomat Christian Turner, replacing the last guy who was ousted over Epstein links. (Guardian)

    Comment: A career diplomat seems a bold move in a power-town now wary of what it sees as the deep state. But at this point, London likely just wants someone low-risk now that the UK has survived the first year of Trump 2.0 *relatively* unscathed.

  5. 05

    CHINA

    Free trader?

    Hainan, China’s southern island province, is launching an ambitious plan to rival the likes of Hong Kong and Singapore as a global shipping port, allowing 74% of goods to enter the island tariff-free (up from 21% just last week). (Straits Times)

    Comment: Beyond any broader branding as a free trade port in a tariff storm, China has long wanted to beef up its Hainan footprint to strengthen its South China Sea presence and deepen its integration into Southeast Asia. But these initiatives keep bumping up against Hainan’s small population and lack of skilled workers.

  6. 06

    PANAMA

    First flight outta here.

    Panama has announced its first direct voluntary return flight for 70 undocumented Venezuelan migrants straight to Caracas rather than via Colombia. (Reuters)

    Comment: It’s part of a US-funded program to stem migrant flows through Panama’s infamous Darién Gap. Direct repatriation flights to Venezuela were previously hard amid Panama’s refusal to recognise Maduro’s stolen re-election last year. We wonder if the resumption now reflects a decline in Maduro’s leverage given all the US pressure.

  7. 07

    EGYPT

    Art of the deal.

    Israel’s Netanyahu has hailed a $35B deal via Chevron to supply 130 billion cubic meters of natural gas from the vast Leviathan field to Egypt through 2040, the largest in Israel's history. (AA)

    Comment: This is a big deal, potentially stabilising a) Israel’s ties with Egypt, b) US-led Abraham Accord talks on Israel’s regional recognition, and c) Egypt’s own energy mix, while also d) diluting reliance on Qatari or Russian gas, and e) enabling Egypt to export more LNG to Europe, in turn f) further diversifying Europe’s own energy mix.