Latest news for 16 December 2025

UKRAINE

Sea drones and peace talks.

Ukraine says it’s hit a Russian submarine with new underwater drones for the first time, a big turning point in naval warfare (ie, crippling a $400M sub with cheap drones). Meanwhile, Germany’s Friedrich Merz has emerged from the latest US-EU-Ukraine talks suggesting there’s now a “real chance” at peace. (EuroNews)

Comment: What might’ve triggered such optimism from a German, you might ask? Apparently, the US and European leaders have offered Ukraine NATO-style security guarantees, although the precise details remain unclear.

AUSTRALIA

More details on Bondi.

Police say the father and son who massacred attendees at Sunday’s Hanukkah gathering on Sydney’s Bondi Beach were inspired by Islamic State, and had recently visited parts of the Philippines where IS-linked groups operate. (CNN)

Comment: We wrote about the global implications of this terror attack here.

FRANCE

Trade deal blocked?

25 years after talks first kicked off, and a year after Europe and South America’s Mercosur bloc finally signed their massive trade deal, Paris is now pushing to delay the final approval vote: French farmers already fear an influx of cheap imports, and are now protesting mass cattle culls in response to a viral outbreak. (France24)

Comment: This might just be brinkmanship, with Paris wanting more farmer sweeteners while Brussels tries to avoid re-opening Pandora’s Box. But the stakes are high: France’s razor-thin governing coalition can’t afford more protests at home, but (amid US tariffs) other European economies need more market access abroad.

ISRAEL

Not happy, Bibi.

President Trump is reportedly unhappy with Israel’s Netanyahu, after an Israeli airstrike killed a Hamas commander during the US-brokered ceasefire. It comes as the two allies differ over the second phase of Trump’s peace plan: Israel wants its final hostage body back first, plus clarity on who’ll disarm Hamas. (TOI)

Comment: On that final question, the US is today (Tuesday) hosting a conference in Doha to nudge more contributions to Gaza’s International Stabilization Force — there’s been little news since the UN backed the idea a month ago.

SINGAPORE

Signatures ready!

Singapore and China signed a record 27 deals on Monday, across finance, tourism, logistics, healthcare, education, ICT, and beyond. One of the deals involves a pilot for Singaporean tourists to use digital renminbi in China. (Straits Times)

Comment: The timing of these talks in China (coinciding with Monday’s Pax Silica talks in the US) won’t have been accidental — the city-state is signalling balance.

BRAZIL

Struck gold.

China-based mining giant CMOC has announced a $1B deal to buy several Brazilian gold mines with eight tons of combined annual output. CMOC just bought a Canadian goldminer earlier this year to tap Ecuador’s largest deposit. (SCMP)

AZERBAIJAN

Feeling magnanimous.

President Aliyev is reportedly weighing up granting amnesty for ~ 20,000 prisoners, the largest such move in the country’s history. (Reuters)

Comment: Rather than release the country’s political prisoners, the draft suggests this partly helps those involved in — or related to someone involved in — Aliyev’s lightning 2023 operation to seize the ethnic Armenian-held Karabakh. It’s a post-victory flex.