Latest news for 3 November 2025

UKRAINE

Key town in the balance.

Ukraine has deployed special forces in an attempt to stop Russian troops seizing the eastern city of Pokrovsk. The city lies on a key military supply route and would be Russia’s most significant gain since the fall of Avdiivka 18 months ago. (Guardian)

MEXICO

Assassinated.

President Claudia Sheinbaum has promised justice will prevail, after a gunman shot dead an outspoken anti-crime mayor in the middle of his Michoacán town’s Day of the Dead celebrations. (NYT $)

Comment: Carlos Manzo said he didn’t want to be just another name on Mexico’s long list of mayors gunned down by organised crime, and the response to his death might prove a vindication: in addition to all the international attention, it’s triggered fiery local protests repeating his demands for an end to violence and corruption.

NIGERIA

Another US intervention?

President Tinubu has pushed back on Donald Trump’s tweet that if Nigeria “continues to allow the killing of Christians”, the US will “wipe out the Islamic Terrorists who are committing these horrible atrocities.” Tinubu says the US position is inaccurate and doesn’t reflect Nigeria’s efforts to stop the violence, though says he welcomes US help in tackling Nigeria’s insecurity. (AfricaNews)

Comment: Groups like Boko Haram and the Islamic State in West Africa Province have killed tens of thousands and displaced millions in their efforts to establish a caliphate since 2009. It’s one of several overlapping threats that military operations managed to semi-curb in the mid 2010s, but it’s resurged in the last couple of years. So rather than foreshadowing an actual US operation, Trump’s tweet looks more like an effort to pressure Nigeria into curbing the violence again, which might be more feasible now that Nigeria’s economy seems to be stabilising.

CHINA

Talk to me.

The US and China have agreed to revive direct military-to-military communications dormant since Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022. Defence Secretary Hegseth says it’s to “deconflict and deescalate any problems that arise”. (Hegseth via X)

Comment: There’s lots of speculation on whether the US might be tweaking its approach to China: for example, Hegseth just highlighted the need for a “balance of power”, while “co-existence” is getting another run after last month’s RAND report. But Hegseth also just urged Southeast Asian nations to beef up their navies to counter China’s “destabilising” actions, while warning about China’s efforts to “dominate” the region. The conflicting messages — together with this revived comms channel above — look to us more like a continuation (rather than abandoning) of US attempts to deter without destabilising, though with a more clear-eyed sense of China’s strengths.

PHILIPPINES

Let’s train together.

Canada and the Philippines have signed a pact to hold more joint military exercises. (Independent)

Comment: It’s a way to help counter China’s push in the South China Sea, and beef up Canada’s military presence after years of under-investment.

INDONESIA

Derailed.

Jakarta is now in talks to restructure its loans from China, as the new Beijing-backed bullet train from Jakarta to Bandung continues to rack up losses. (FT $)

Comment: Nobody likes a told-you-so, but we flagged this debt risk when the ‘WHOOSH’ train (a Bahasa acronym) first opened back in 2023. Both countries now have a lot riding on finding a quick solution. Otherwise, this all risks confirming both a) the region’s fears that China’s infrastructure largesse comes with too much debt; and b) the fears of President Prabowo’s critics who question the sustainability of his big-spending agenda (even if this particular project predates his presidency).

CUBA

Minister charged.

Authorities have charged former economy minister Alejandro Gil with espionage and embezzlement, without mentioning the country he allegedly helped. (Al Jazeera)

Comment: The Cubans are most likely nodding at possible US involvement here, though Gil has been on the outer since his big 2021 monetary reforms backfired amid Cuba’s economic collapse. So the accusations might just be the figleaf for a purge.