Latest news for 1 August 2025

CANADA

Howdy, neighbour.

Prime Minister Carney has issued a relatively measured response to President Trump’s 35% tariff announcement, noting Canada’s exports to the US are still tariff-free if they comply with the existing US-Mexico-Trade deal (CUSMA) — ie, if they’re made with enough local labour and inputs. (The PM’s office)

Comment: While most of Canada’s exports are CUSMA-eligible, only ~38% actually had the certification last year. Carney’s statement voices disappointment and pushes back on the fentanyl justification, but the PM’s thrust is more to reiterate Canada’s commitment to CUSMA, and to cut down the various internal trade barriers back home. This reminds us of the ‘small target’ strategy employed by…

MEXICO

Breathing room.

While Canada got whacked with 35%, President Trump announced another 90-day extension for Mexico as they hammer out a deal. (CNBC)

Comment: This came after a call with Trump’s Mexican counterpart, Claudia Sheinbaum, who seems to have garnered the president’s quiet admiration. It’s unclear exactly how or why, though maybe that’s the point: Sheinbaum doesn’t have to worry about re-election (she’s term-limited) so she’s not litigating this via the media.

PAKISTAN

Deal!

The US and Pakistan have announced a last-minute trade deal, featuring US tariffs of 19% (down from Liberation Day's 29%) in return for an unspecified US role in developing Pakistan’s sizeable oil reserves. (AA)

Comment: This could just be to avert today’s Trump-imposed 1 August deadline. Or it could be a US strategy to cleave Pakistan away from its friends next door in Beijing — that kind of strategy runs the risk of irking rival India next door, though it’s hardly Trump’s style to worry about that (he just called India’s economy dead!).

EL SALVADOR

Don’t leave me.

Congress has approved a constitutional reform scrapping presidential term limits, meaning the ultra-popular President Bukele can now seek re-election indefinitely. He already crushed last year’s re-election after the supreme court (selected by his party) ruled that his current second run was okay. (BBC)

Comment: The same ‘mano dura’ instincts that helped Bukele defeat organised crime will now help him accumulate (and retain) power. A familiar pattern on the continent.

UGANDA

Frenemy fire.

A skirmish between South Sudanese and Ugandan forces has left at least six soldiers dead. The two neighbours have pretty close ties, but there are occasional flare-ups along contested parts of their border. (Al Jazeera)

MYANMAR

Emergency over?

The ruling junta has finally ended its 2021 state of emergency from when it seized power via a coup. The generals are preparing elections for December in hopes of securing sanctions relief, though they’re widely seen as a sham. (Guardian)

LITHUANIA

Step down.

Prime Minister Gintautas Paluckas has stepped down following allegations of financial wrongdoing, triggering a government reshuffle. (Politico)

Comment: With an expansionist Russia at its doorstep, the last thing NATO ally Lithuania needs right now is political instability.