Latest news for 26 June 2025

UNITED STATES

Schrodinger’s nukes.

Responding to initial leaks to the contrary, US spymaster Tulsi Gabbard now says “Iran’s nuclear facilities have been destroyed”. President Trump himself briefly suggested the intel was “inconclusive” before again reiterating the hits were decisive. Meanwhile, Iran’s messaging has ranged from dismissing any claims of damage, to threatening legal action over the “badly damaged” sites. (The Hill)

Comment: Iran’s mixed messaging probably reflects a) their own uncertainty around what actually remains under Fordow mountain, and b) an attempt to balance domestic bravado with international leverage.

UKRAINE

Trump to revamp military support?

Following a meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart at NATO, the US president has said he’s now considering providing (possibly selling) Ukraine more Patriot missiles to help defend against Putin’s attacks. He’s also showed a flash of frustration towards Putin, arguing the Russian president “really has to end that war”. (ABC)

UNITED KINGDOM

Shell in talks to buy BP?

There are reports Dutch oil giant Shell is in early talks to buy British rival BP, in a deal for the ages. Shell has denied the reports (but it would, wouldn’t it?). (WSJ $)

Comment: It’s been a rough couple of years for BP, with falling oil prices, external shocks (Russia), and strategic missteps (critics say it misread the energy transition). That all helped gut BP’s market cap, leaving it vulnerable to a buyout.

BRAZIL

Putin and XI no-shows at BRICS.

Russia’s Vladimir Putin won’t attend next month’s BRICS summit in Rio, citing his ICC warrant as the hurdle (Brazil would be obliged to arrest him). Interestingly, China’s Xi Jinping will also skip the summit for the first time. (Moscow Times)Comment: Sure, it's hard to talk up BRICS when one founding member fears setting foot in the territory of another. But the more interesting absence for us is Xi — he’s blaming a scheduling conflict, but we suspect it could (among other factors) be a preference not to play Scottie Pippen to India’s Michael Jordan, given only India’s Narendra Modi scored a Brazilian invite to a full state dinner after the summit.

ARMENIA

Archbishop arrested over coup plot!

Authorities have arrested a prominent Armenian Apostolic archbishop and 13 others on claims they were plotting a coup with 1,000 former soldiers and police. The cleric says these are political charges to punish him for opposing the West-leaning PM’s policies, like territorial concessions to Azerbaijan. (France24)Comment: Things are getting wild in Armenia, and they’ll get wilder in the lead-up to elections next year. One of the ironies is that opposition to the PM partly stems from his territorial losses to Azerbaijan, which were enabled by Russia abandoning Armenia. And yet the result, theoretically, could be a more Russia-friendly leader winning next year’s elections, though no single frontrunner has emerged.

TUVALU

A mistaken US travel ban?

The US has reportedly added the Pacific Island nations of Tuvalu, Tonga, and Vanuatu to a travel ban list, though tiny Tuvalu now says it’s received verbal confirmation it’s all a mistake. Vanuatu might be on the list because it still runs a controversial citizenship-by-investment scheme. (The Diplomat)

ZAMBIA

Court halts burial of ex-leader.

A South African court has halted the impending burial of former Zambian leader Edgar Lungu after receiving a last-minute repatriation request from the Zambian government. Zambia argues Lungu should be laid to rest at its official burial place for former heads of state, regardless of any family preferences. (Africa News)