Latest news for 15 May 2025

IRAN

Tehran ready to sign nuclear deal, top aide says.

Ali Shamkhani, a top advisor to Iran’s supreme leader, has told NBC that Tehran would commit to never make nukes, ditch its near-weapons-grade uranium, and enrich uranium only to lower civilian levels, all under the eye of international inspectors, in exchange for the immediate lifting of all sanctions on Iran. (NBC)

Comment: That proposal sounds a lot like the earlier ‘JCPOA’ deal Trump 1.0 ditched in favour of ‘maximum pressure’ to fully end both Iran’s nuclear program and its support for proxy groups like Hezbollah. But with Hezbollah now on the ropes and that deal’s main opponent (Israel’s Netanyahu) getting Trump’s cold-shoulder, Iran clearly sees an opening for Trump to take the status quo ante as a win. Trump is hinting a deal is close, and markets seem to believe him (oil prices have dropped).

RUSSIA

Putin skips peace talks in Turkey.

Shrugging off international pressure, the Russian president has announced he’s skipping today’s scheduled peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Turkey, sending a lower-level delegation instead. (France 24)

Comment: Remember it was Putin who proposed today’s direct peace negotiations in Turkey, and Ukraine’s Zelensky is there right now. It’s another reminder that Putin’s talk of peace is probably designed to string the West along while he keeps pushing.

CHINA

Beijing criticises US-UK trade deal.

Beijing has come out against last week’s mini-US-UK trade deal, arguing it harms China. How, you ask? The UK only gets US tariff relief on British-made cars and steel if it complies with stringent supply chain and ownership rules widely seen as excluding inputs from China. (Guardian)

Comment: This UK trade pact was Trump’s first, so might offer hints for the rest — if so, it suggests Trump is pivoting away from his full frontal tariff approach on China towards this kind of indirect squeeze via third-party trade deals. But other key trading partners more dependent on China won’t be so willing or able to accept these terms.

HUNGARY

Orbán submits new NGO blacklist bill.

The bill, which critics say resembles Moscow’s infamous ‘foreign agents’ law, would allow Budapest to blacklist NGOs on broadly defined national sovereignty grounds if they receive foreign funding, including from the EU. (Politico)

Comment: Governments everywhere are bringing more scrutiny to any avenues for foreign influence. But the thing with the Russian law and others like it is a) the context (openly aimed at the West); b) the scope (catching anyone who gets any foreign cash); and c) the results (Putin has used his law to silence just about every critical voice in Russia).

CAMBODIA

China and Cambodia kick off joint drills.

Their biggest-ever military exercises kicked off yesterday (Wednesday) and will wrap on 28 May, aiming to showcase China’s latest military kit including armoured vehicles, helicopters, warships, drones, and (yes) robot battle dogs. (Straits Times)

BOLIVIA

President quits re-election race.

Current leader Luis Arce has now withdrawn from August’s presidential election after months of infighting with former ally and ex-president Evo Morales. (AP)

Comment: It’s shaping up to be a wild campaign, with the unpopular president now urging Morales to ditch his own (unconstitutional) campaign so a young rising star can unify the left against a resurgent opposition.

SOUTH AFRICA

Leader slams white South Africans resettling in US.

President Ramaphosa has called a group of white minority Afrikaners cowards after they resettled in the US under Trump’s new refugee scheme. Ramaphosa denies Trump’s claims of persecution, instead arguing the 59 Afrikaners are relocating because they oppose efforts to address South Africa’s apartheid past. (Euronews)