The Middle East, one year on

It’s now been a year since the Hamas attacks on Israel left 1,200 dead, so let’s take a look at how our world has changed since October 7, through the eyes and words of some of the main protagonists who’ve all made public statements in recent days.

• “We will return our hostages in the south, return our residents in the north, and ensure the eternity of Israel” – Benjamin Netanyahu, prime minister of Israel

Netanyahu made that pledge yesterday (Sunday), and it not only summarises his continued aims, but also his current vibe: confident. Why? He’s now landed a string of blows against Israel’s foes, and that seems to have rehabilitated his standing back home, with Israel’s Channel 12 just releasing polling suggesting he’s now the preferred PM again.

You can also see that confidence not only in his dismissal of various ICJ and ICC proceedings, but also in his dismissal of Western backers who’ve criticised the way Israel has gone about defending itself: leaving rubble that might take 15 years to clear; 80,000 homes destroyed; 2.3 million Gazan lives disrupted; countless lives gone.

Looking ahead, key questions on Bibi now include: a) what happens with his criminal charges at home (he’s due in court in December); b) where his next moves against Iran and Hezbollah might lead; c) the fate of the ~100 hostages still held in Gaza a year later; and d) whether Netanyahu comes up with viable answers on Gaza’s future.

That’ll partly determine whether he can avoid any of his recent tactical wins giving way to longer-term strategic defeats: eg, more regional hostility and international isolation, all translating into more insecurity for Israel.

• “Hamas is still in a very good shape” – Basem Naim, Hamas head of international relations

Naim just made this claim on state-run Saudi TV, and it’s interesting for three reasons. First, Naim is one of the dwindling number of Hamas leaders still alive for comment (his boss Sinwar is in hiding); and second, because Hamas sources themselves say all but one of their combat battalions are now gone. But also third, because Naim is the same guy who claimed Hamas didn’t kill civilians, despite it livestreaming hours of proof to the contrary.

In his interview this weekend, Naim went on to describe the Hamas goal for October 7 as putting the Palestinian cause “back on the table“. But when asked about the costs of the resulting war, Naim accepted no responsibility and declined to renounce his group’s long-held goal of destroying Israel.

As for what’s next? Naim went on to acknowledge the possibility he may be assassinated and that Hamas may be dismantled, but he expressed defiance that others will replace Hamas, just as Hamas replaced others before it.

• “The group’s missile force is still striking various targets deep within northern occupied Palestine” – An unnamed Hezbollah commander

That appeared in Hezbollah’s latest statement, and it’s interesting for three reasons: first, the “occupied Palestine” line seems to be a reference to northern Israel, and is a reminder that Hezbollah, together with Hamas and their shared sponsor Iran, have long sought Israel’s destruction. Second, because notwithstanding the elimination of much of its leadership and arsenal, Hezbollah is still striking a defiant tone.

And third, that might be because, while some of Hezbollah’s local rivals will welcome the listed terrorist group’s demise, Israel’s role – and the displacement of 1.3 million people in the process – all risks uniting pan-Lebanese sentiment against Israel again.

• “And God willing, this too will not last for long” – Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran

This line is interesting for a bunch of reasons: first, it appeared in Khamenei’s first public sermon in five years on Friday. Second, he spoke both in Farsi (for a domestic Iranian audience) and Arabic (for the broader region), seeking to bolster teetering domestic and regional support for his regime.

But third, it’s also interesting because when he refers to “this” not lasting long, he’s referring to Israel. But rather than use Israel’s name, he calls it the “Zionist regime“, “the US’s rabid dog“, “plundering devils“, and so on – a reminder not just of his own refusal to acknowledge Israel’s existence, but also his own long-held aim to seek its demise.

• “Make no mistake, the United States is fully, fully, fully supportive of Israel” – Joe Biden, the US president

Biden reiterated his support after last week’s Iranian missile attack on Israel, but that support has come against a backdrop of increased social and political divisions across the West not seen in response to other conflicts like (for example) the Syrian civil war that’s left half a million people dead, or the Sudanese civil war that’s displaced ten million.

Meanwhile, Washington’s moves to back Israel, deter Iran, and broker a ceasefire in Gaza have also complicated US efforts to ‘pivot’ to challenges closer to home (like China’s rise), or respond to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. And you can see that in the numbers: there were 30,000 US troops in the Middle East on October 6th last year; that number now exceeds 43,000.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

There are several other big issues also playing out. Here are two:

• Key regional players like the Saudis have now paused their moves to recognise Israel, absent any two-state solution, and yet
• While international support for a two-state solution has increased (eg, ~145 out of 193 countries now recognise a Palestinian state), support has decreased where it arguably matters most: polls suggest that, amid all the fighting, only minorities of Palestinians and Israelis now support a two-state solution.

So a year on, the Hamas attacks and Israel’s response have seemingly left a weaker Iran and its proxies, a relatively stronger Israel, a region still counting its dead, and any kind of sustainable political solution looking even further out of reach.