Mohammed Deif: dead or alive?

You might’ve noticed an Israeli Defence Force (IDF) tweet on Saturday regarding an airstrike on a “compound” in southern Gaza, where it said “two senior Hamas terrorists and additional terrorists hid among civilians”.

Sure enough, rumours then started swirling around who was inside, while Hamas claimed these reports were all a deflection to justify the deaths of 90+ people sheltering in the designated safe area outside. And now, The New York Times is reporting a second strike hit near emergency responders in the area.

So here’s what we ✌️know✌️.

What was this compound?

It was a villa within a walled garden, along what Israel has designated as a safe zone in a coastal area of southern Gaza known as Al Mawasi.

Who was inside?

The villa appears to have belonged to Rafa Salameh, the head of the Hamas brigade in the area.

But rather than hit the villa straight away, Israel surveilled it for weeks in the hopes Salameh might one day be joined by his elusive boss, Mohammed Deif.

Who’s Mohammed Deif?

He’s the head of the Hamas armed wing. Both the US and the EU have designated him a terrorist, and the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for his arrest in May (alongside other Hamas and Israeli leaders).

A reclusive figure, he’s topped Israel’s most-wanted list since the 1990s, and one of the few times he’s spoken publicly was actually on the morning of October 7th, when he announced (via pre-recorded message) the Hamas attacks on Israel.

He’s survived multiple Israeli assassination attempts, bolstering his reputation in the process. In fact, a common pro-Hamas chant even features his name. So…

Was Deif inside?

Deif and Salameh were friends – one of only two known photos of Deif’s face (above) actually shows the men relaxing together, so Israel hoped they might meet. And after weeks of surveillance, Israel got word on Friday that Deif was visiting Salameh’s compound. The IDF conducted the airstrike the next morning.

As rumours swirled, Israeli and US officials gave mixed messages on whether Deif was killed, but Israeli outlets are now reporting that the unanimous assessment across Israel’s security agencies is that Deif is indeed dead.

However, Hamas has issued two curious denials: one via an anonymous source to French media, and the other via a Hamas official living in Qatar. And to boot, the two Hamas denials actually conflict on some details: the anonymous one says ceasefire negotiations are now off, while the Qatar guy says they’re on.

So… is Deif dead?

We don’t know, but given Deif’s key role, both Israel and Hamas have strong incentives to be right. For Israel, Deif’s death would mean:

• The most senior Hamas casualty in Gaza yet
• Further isolation of the strip’s top Hamas chief (Yahya Sinwar)
• Evidence for Israel’s claims that it was pursuing military targets (given the high number of reported civilian casualties), and
• A step towards Netanyahu’s aim to end the war by defeating Hamas.

Meanwhile, for Hamas, Deif’s death would mean:

• The embarrassing loss of its military leader
• The denting of Deif’s (and his group’s) claims to invincibility, and
• Confirmation he was hiding among civilians (something that’s already triggered criticism among rival Palestinian leaders in the West Bank).

So that’s where things stand for now – we just don’t know. But the longer Hamas takes to prove Deif is still alive, the more likely Deif is actually now dead.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

So what does all this mean for cease-fire talks? Long-time readers might recall that, given the opposing and existential aims of Israel and Hamas, we’ve long been sceptical this war can end until either a) Netanyahu is ousted, or b) Sinwar and Deif are killed or captured.

So we’ve now potentially seen a shift towards option b, and that has both practical and political significance. Practically, Deif was apparently the contact point between the Hamas leadership in Gaza (Mr Sinwar) and its political leadership in Qatar. With that link gone, how do negotiations resume?

Sinwar would potentially have to emerge from hiding to re-establish contact, but it’s hard to see that happening given rumours of a human source tipping Israel off to Deif on Friday.

And that all has political impact. Sinwar and Deif are hardliners who’ve resisted past deals (returning hostages would mean ceding leverage). So with more hardliners potentially now either dead (like Deif) or isolated (like Sinwar), that could tip Hamas towards a deal Netanyahu is willing to accept.

Also worth noting:

• China is set to host senior officials from rival Palestinian factions (Hamas in Gaza and Fatah in the West Bank) for a meeting to bridge gaps next week.
• Deif’s name is Mohammed Diab Ibrahim al-Masri, but he goes by ‘Deif’, which is Arabic for ‘guest’ – it’s a reference to his reputation for moving constantly to avoid surveillance.
• If Deif is dead, his most likely replacement is Mohamed Sinwar, the Gaza Hamas chief’s younger (and apparently less formidable) brother.