Five geopolitical vibes at the Paris Olympics

As 10,500 athletes from 200 countries and regions head to Paris for the 2024 Summer Olympics, the organisers really really want the world’s largest sporting event to be free of politics and geopolitics.

And to that, we say bon chance. Here are five ways these Olympics will again get geopolitical, if they’re not already (they are). And it all starts right in…

1. The Olympic DNA

The ancient games began among rival city-states who, when not busy warring among themselves, used the event to spread Hellenistic culture across the region.

Fast forward to 1896, and the French aristocrat who rebirthed the Olympics said he was moved by his own wartime trauma to try mending ties with sports.

Then fast-forward again to 2024, with a quarter of the world’s folks now caught in ~55 conflicts, plus Paris itself on the highest terror alert. And against that kind of backdrop, we’re gonna need a lot of rhythmic gymnastics. So let’s look at…

2. The Olympic Truce

Since 1992, the UN General Assembly has called for an ‘Olympic Truce’ during each event, but Russia has breached it around the games in 2008 (seizing Georgian territory), 2014 (annexing Crimea) and 2022 (invading broader Ukraine).

The latter got Russian and Belarusian athletes sanctioned, so they can now only compete as neutrals (no flags or anthems – Putin lost his appeal this year). Even the UN’s latest ‘Olympic Truce’ only passed on a vote (rather than consensus) after Russia sought unsuccessfully to tweak the text in its own favour.

Meanwhile, organisers have resisted calls for sanctions on Israeli athletes over the war in Gaza, though they’re bracing for protests and have upped security since the 1972 terrorist attack against the Israeli team in Munich.

Then that brings us to…

3. Who hosts

The decision whether to bid for hosting rights is a tricky one: it’s the ultimate global spotlight to showcase a country’s power, values, culture, investability, and beyond. Reagan (for example) used the 1984 LA games to push back on claims of US decline, and Macron is arguably making a similar statement in 2024.

But hosting is also costly, and can aim a global microscope on your own issues, raising questions around whether others will turn up: we saw (for example) duelling Cold War boycotts, plus boycotts of Beijing’s 2022 opening ceremony.

Foes can also disrupt the games to make you look bad – eg, French intelligence has already accused Azerbaijan of seeking to foment domestic resistance to the games online, presumably in retaliation for France’s support for rival Armenia.

And then there’s…

4. Who plays

Simply turning up can make a statement, like when the two rival Koreas marched together – and even fielded an ice hockey team together – in 2018. Or sometimes it’s a post-win gesture, like the South Korean soccer player who lost his 2012 medal over his sign claiming sovereignty over the Dokdo-Takeshimas.

And this year, you can also look at who’s not playing: an Algerian judoka got banned for a decade back in 2021 after refusing to compete against an Israeli.

Then of course, there’s…

5. Who wins

A single medal can inspire not just a nation, but millions abroad – take Morocco’s first gold medallist (Nawal El Moutawakel), who won the first-ever 400m women’s hurdles in 1984 in a breakthrough for women across the region.

Major rivalries can also play out in a single match-up, like the infamous 1956 Hungary-USSR water polo match that left blood in the pool, just weeks after Soviet tanks rolled into Budapest (the Hungarians took gold).

And of course, major rivalries can also play out in the total medal tally: China invested heavily to ensure its first overall win coincided with its Beijing games in 2008, capping off China’s big ‘coming of age’ moment on the world stage.

But as China-US ties have soured, and the two powers now openly compete for international influence, more folks will (again) see that total medal count as a proxy for broader systemic competition: ie, “my system is better than yours”.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

We’re barely scratching the surface here, but let’s scratch once more:

Given the above stakes, you can bet Paris 2024 will be full of spies. Yes, spies. Many will be playing ‘defence’, whether it’s the ‘minders’ from more reclusive regimes trying to prevent defections from among their athletes, or the local counter-terrorism folks trying to keep the city safe.

But you can also bet there’ll be spooks there playing ‘offence’. Just look at the sheer number of world leaders and associated power-brokers gathering for the opening ceremony on Friday night. And that’s before you count the athletes and sporting officials, often with close ties to power back home…

Anyway, don’t let us distract you from the 45 sports taking centre stage in and around Paris from Friday, including new ones like breakdancing (seriously).

Also worth noting:

• One Paris event (surfing) will actually take place 15,700km away in Tahiti. The Paris Paralympics will start next month. The next summer games are in LA (2028) and then Brisbane (2032).
• Denver became the first city to hand back its hosting rights (1976) after voters passed a referendum against the related spending.
• Oh, and we could write a whole briefing on the International Olympic Committee, which is based in Lausanne, generates $8B in revenue each cycle, and is governed by 100 self-selected ‘members’, including the longest-serving of them all, Princess Nora of Liechtenstein.