A tense G20 in Brazil that seemed to please nobody

While northern hemisphere leaders will have been delighted to escape their frosty capitals, we can assure you that it is simply a coincidence that the APEC Summit last week and the G20 Summit this week were held in the balmy cities of Lima and Rio de Janeiro, respectively.

As always, we’ve parsed the meetings, the statements, and the final G20 communique so you can get on with your day (oh and if you missed our readout of APEC, go ahead and treat yourself!).

1. The intriguing bits of the final communique

• 🇺🇦 Europe disappointed by Ukraine statement. The US, UK, EU, and Australia all wanted the “strongest possible” stance on Ukraine, calling out Russian aggression. But China and Russia teamed up to ensure there were only vague references to “human suffering and the negative added impact of war” in the final document. A Downing Street spokesperson called the statement “disappointing,” while German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said, “It is too little when the G20 cannot find the words to make it clear Russia is responsible [for the war in Ukraine].”
• 🇦🇷 Milei keeps Trump’s seat warm. Intriguingly, Argentinian President Javier Milei seemed to be representing his good friend, US President-elect Donald Trump: “I’m not a politician, nor do I aspire to be one. Just like President Trump I had to step into this putrid swamp as an act of self-defence.” Milei and his diplomats played the role of spoiler duringthe summit, almost scuttling the final communique over disagreements on issues of gender equality, taxation of billionaires, and sustainable development.
• 🍃 A message to climate negotiators in Baku. The final G20 statement called on negotiators at the UN climate summit COP29 to reach a deal on a new financial goal. Determining how much wealthier nations must give to developing nations has been one of the main sticking points in the climate talks.
• 💸 Taxing the ultra-rich? Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva hoped to push through an agreement to increase taxes on the global super-rich. While tax-advocacy groups are celebrating the fact that G20 leaders endorsed a statement made by their finance ministers back in July, the US, Germany, and Argentina indicated they’re not likely to support any concrete action to increase taxes on billionaires.

2. UK’s Starmer raises human rights issues with China’s Xi

Britain’s new Prime Minister Keir Starmer, whose approval rating has crashed a historic 49 points since Labour’s landslide election victory in July, raised several human rights issues with China’s Xi Jinping during a bilateral meeting on Monday, just as Hong Kong prepared to sentence more than 45 pro-democracy activists.

Starmer specifically raised the case of Jimmy Lai, a British citizen of Hong Kong descent facing trial in Hong Kong, before broadening the conversation to focus on Taiwan, as well as Chinese sanctions against British parliamentarians.

Having already floated the possibility of either visiting Beijing himself or hosting Chinese Premier Li Qiang in London, Starmer expressed his “concern” about Lai’s “deteriorating” condition. Xi’s team responded predictably by promptly ushering British journalists from the room. So, it’s reasonable to assume Starmer won’t be getting the red-carpet treatment in Beijing anytime soon.

3. Putin rattles his nuclear sabre again

While most G20 members sent their leaders, Russia’s Vladimir Putin—who remains the subject of an International Criminal Court arrest warrant—sent Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov instead.

But Putin nonetheless made his presence felt on Tuesday, dropping the policy bomb that Russia had amended its nuclear doctrine to allow nuclear retaliation against a conventional attack. Essentially, an attack by a “non-nuclear power but with the participation or support of a nuclear power” will be seen as a “joint attack” on Russia.

Just as we were hitting send on yesterday’s edition of International Intrigue, news broke that Ukraine had launched six US-supplied long-range ATACMS missiles at a military facility in Bryansk. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed yesterday that these kinds of strikes could allow Russia to respond with nuclear weapons under its newly revised doctrine.

And it was with Russia’s now-familiar nuclear threats hanging in the air that Brazil handed the G20 baton to South Africa, who will host next year’s summit.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

So what to make of Rio 2024? Well, not much – with host Lula trying to push through a politically divisive agenda, a lame-duck US president, and wrecker-in-chief Javier Milei playing his role to perfection, people we’ve talked to in Rio said there was palpable disorganisation and division in the negotiation rooms.

The problem is, big global summits like the G20 are most useful when they end with a clear, organising message about the priorities of the world’s most powerful governments. The ‘perfect’ summit statement would give businesses and bureaucracies the confidence to make strategic decisions for the long term.

Instead, we got a summit during which President Lula grew so sick of the infighting that he published the final communique early, much to the chagrin of the delegates who were still trading barbs behind the scenes.

Also worth noting:

• US President Joe Biden did not talk to the press pool once during his six-day trip to South America.
• Brazilian police arrested five people on Tuesday morning accused of planning to assassinate then-President-elect Lula in 2022, days before he took office.