Are we headed for more mayhem in Georgia?

The pro-Western and mostly ceremonial president of Georgia stepped up to the palace’s lectern in Tbilisi last night (Sunday) and delivered an extraordinary statement:

• Flanked by leaders from the country’s fractured, pro-West opposition, Salome Zourabichvili declared Saturday’s elections had fallen victim to a “Russian special operation”, involving the “complete falsification and theft of your votes“.

That’s because Georgia’s electoral commission had just announced that the country’s Russia-friendly ruling party (Georgian Dream) had won 54% of the vote, an outcome the president was now openly rejecting as “Georgia’s subordination to Russia.”

Meanwhile the country’s day-to-day leader (prime minister), recently installed by his Georgian Dream party’s shadowy billionaire founder, declared the victory was actually “impressive and obvious“, and shrugged off fraud claims as “doomed to failure“.

So then… who’s right here?

• Georgia’s pro-West president (‘electoral fraud!’), or
• Its Russia-friendly PM (‘electoral victory!’).

Notwithstanding its authoritarian turn (eg, this year’s Russian-styled ‘foreign agents’ law), the ruling Georgian Dream party enjoys some support thanks to economic growth, a fractious opposition, and loyalist media, plus fears (stoked by the same media) about Georgia getting pulled into the Russo-Ukraine war or losing its traditional values. There are also pockets (particularly in rural areas) with strong cultural-linguistic ties to Russia.

But still, credible polling only put the ruling party’s support at maybe 40%, and credible exit polling reflected this on election night, suggesting the decade-long Georgian Dream government had failed to win a majority. And that’s partly why there was a sense of shock when the electoral commission claimed the ruling party had actually won 54%.

So is there credible evidence of election skulduggery here?

Quite a bit. While several observers note the election ran smoothly from a procedural perspective, the International Republican Institute, the National Democratic Institute, the International Society for Fair Elections and Democracy, an EU parliamentary mission, a NATO parliamentary delegation, the Council of Europe, and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe have all now variously documented widespread instances of controlled voting, double-voting, ballot stuffing, coercion, voter suppression, and violence, all against the backdrop of an uneven playing field in terms of coverage and cash.

And it’s worth a quick look at some of the specifics here:

• ‘Controlled voting’ refers to pressuring voters to show photos of how they voted, in return for cash or safety. Cameras are banned inside the voting booths to avoid this practice, but it still happened, including seemingly on live TV.
• The government also reportedly made it difficult for the million or so Georgians abroad to vote (they’re a more pro-Western cohort), and
• Just in August, the prime minister almost went full Kim Jong Un by vowing to ban most credible opposition parties.

But… the above initial observer reports still stopped short of declaring the election stolen.

Transparency International, however, has now crossed that particular Rubicon: the NGO, a long-time critic of Georgia’s government, has now declared the various problems above as “part of a larger scheme, the purpose of which was to subvert the final result of the election.” It’s now therefore concluded that “the preliminary results published by the Central Election Commission do not reflect the will of the citizens of Georgia.“

So what happens now?

Several Western governments with their own history of Russian occupation — like in Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania — have already sounded the alarm.

But Hungary’s Russia-friendly leader, Viktor Orbán – who now also holds the EU’s rotating presidency – tweeted his congratulations for Georgian Dream’s “overwhelming victory“, before the results had even been announced! He’s now about to visit Georgia’s PM (who’s cited Orbán as an inspiration), and will then host the PM back in Budapest for a broader European summit next week, all lending legitimacy to his claims of victory.

As for the EU and the US? The EU quoted some of the above observer reports and called for “constructive and inclusive dialogue” 🔥, while the US noted a little less limply that “international observers have not declared the result to be free and fair.” 🔥🔥

So for now, next steps really depend on what Georgia’s people themselves do, and the figurehead president has already called on them to take the streets tonight (Monday).

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

Now, Georgia is tiny (<4 million people), so how much does this really matter to the broader world?

Part of the answer is that Georgia has (like neighbouring Moldova and Ukraine) long been part of a broader frontline for Vladimir Putin’s efforts to restore Russian power. The Georgians gained independence from Moscow back in 1991, and some 80% of them now say they want to join the EU — it’s even in the country’s constitution (NATO, too).

But Putin has long had his own designs and has been occupying 20% of Georgia’s territory since 2008. And as he’s gone on to invade Crimea (2014) then broader Ukraine (2022), plus interfere in Moldova’s elections (this month), all with limited pushback from an introspective West, Putin has been placing the West in a bind between:

• a) openly backing democracy, but getting accused of interference, or
• b) watching Russia openly ‘Belarusify’ these countries, but then getting accused of Western indifference.

Also worth noting:

• The Georgian Dream’s claimed majority still isn’t big enough to change Georgia’s constitution.