India and Canada expel diplomats over extraordinary allegations

Canada and India are at it again, with Canada expelling India’s high commissioner (ambassador) and five other diplomats over some truly extraordinary accusations: “orchestrating homicides and extortion” against Sikhs in Canada.

For its part, India denies any wrongdoing, and even denies its diplomats were expelled (rather, it claims it withdrew them for their own safety). So India has now retaliated, booting six Canadian diplomats in return. Those Canucks now have until Saturday, leaving barely enough time to throw back some final mango lassis before skipping town.

Didn’t India and Canada already have this argument last year? 

Kinda, but here’s some quick context before we get to why this is escalating yet again.

As British rule receded in India, some members of the Sikh faith started calling for an independent homeland called Khalistan. And that morphed into an armed insurgency in the 1980s, with thousands of Sikhs then fleeing as India quelled the movement.

Many Sikhs ended up in Canada, which became home to the largest Sikh community outside India. While lots have since prospered and (for example) even gone on to become a cabinet minister, some have continued their Khalistan cause from Canada. Then…

• In June 2023, someone shot dead Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Vancouver (India alleges he headed the Khalistan Tiger Force, a listed terrorist group in India)
• Then in September 2023, Prime Minister Trudeau made explosive allegations that there was intelligence linking “agents” of India to Nijjar’s murder
• In May 2024, Canadian police arrested three Indian nationals over Nijjar’s murder, and
• In August,Canadian police warned at least one Sikh leader of threats to his life.

So what’s happened now?

Canada says it’s now found “ample, clear and concrete evidence” that those six Indian diplomats were actually “persons of interest” in Nijjar’s assassination.

What evidence?

Canadian officials are now briefing media outlets that they’ve intercepted text messages and conversations, all painting a picture of those Indian diplomats allegedly:

• a) gathering intel on multiple Sikh activists before they were targeted by India-linked criminal gangs in Canada
• b) using threats and withholding critical consular services as leverage to extract that intel, in an operation that was…
• c) all personally overseen by India’s high commissioner (ambassador), and…
• d) all authorised by Amit Shah, India’s powerful home affairs minister and a top ally of Prime Minister Modi.

So to re-cap for those playing at home, whereas Canada started out last year claiming that “agents” of the Indian government were involved in a single assassination, it’s now levelling that accusation directly at the government itself, at the highest levels, and is widening the accusation to suggest this all goes way beyond a single murder. 🔥🔥🔥

That’s why this is all in the news again.

And as if this wasn’t all intriguing enough, The Washington Post is now reporting that the Canadians presented the above accusations at a secret meeting in Singapore this past Saturday with India’s powerful national security advisor, Ajit Doval (who actually made his reputation quashing armed Sikh groups back in the 1980s).

That Singapore meeting didn’t go so well, and details soon leaked into the India media, so Canada has now gone public – again.

For its part, India hasn’t addressed some of the specifics above, but it’s responded with an extraordinary statement, rejecting the allegations as “preposterous” and attributing them to “the political agenda of the Trudeau Government that is centred around vote bank politics.”

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

It’s worth a quick look at the different ways this is now playing out in each country.

As India has become more confident, it’s also become more forthright in alleging Canada is harbouring Sikh terrorists, all while India’s spooks (‘RAW’) have shifted from defence to offence, and from a regional to a global remit. And that’s all dovetailed with Modi’s own political fortunes, burnishing his image as a Hindu strongman. But with Indian voters clipping his wings back in June, and Western partners now backing Canada’s claims, the costs for Modi are rising.

Meanwhile, outlets in Canada have (like India above) suggested there’s political mileage for Trudeau here given the size of the Sikh community (800,000 people). But any political interests have by now morphed into something much bigger: the notion that a foreign power might’ve been assassinating Canadian citizens on Canadian soil.

And then there’s the US, which is now prosecuting an Indian national over an eerily similar assassination attempt against a Sikh leader in New York last year. And that begs the question: why has President Biden taken a lower profile approach in response? Well, partly because he can — quiet US pressure still seems to have ousted one top Indian spy and led to the arrest of another. But also, Biden probably senses he must move cautiously — the US and India need one another as a counterweight to China.

Still, with India now allegedly joining the ranks of Russia and the Saudis in assassinating rivals on the streets of major cities abroad, there’ll be questions around the extent to which the West might’ve misjudged its new partner.

Also worth noting:

• Calls for an independent Khalistan have lost momentum inside India lately, with many of the movement’s most vocal proponents now living abroad.
• At the movement’s peak in the 1980s, a Sikh extremist blew up an Air India flight from Canada to India via Britain, killing all 329 people on board. The prime minister of India was also assassinated by two Sikh members of her security detail after an Indian raid on the holiest Sikh temple.