China and Russia sail the Bering Sea

Before kicking off its boots for China’s week-long national day holiday, the Chinese Coast Guard conducted an Arctic patrol over the weekend. And that’s significant because:

• a) It involved passing through the Bering Sea between Russia and the US (Alaska)
• b) It’s reportedly the first time China’s coast guard has entered the Arctic, and
• c) It took this step with its ‘no limits’ partner Russia (reminder: Putin and Xi declared a ‘no limits’ partnership, days before Vlad invaded Ukraine in 2022).

So then, why’d they do it?

The Russians haven’t offered an explanation. And neither did China, until the US did the diplomatic equivalent of a fake cough, releasing a statement noting a routine US border patrol had observed the four vessels (two each) transiting just within Russia’s boundary.

The subsequent media interest then prompted Beijing to release a statement yesterday (Wednesday), saying its aim was to expand its coast guard’s range, test its abilities in new oceans, bolster its participation in international governance, and help maintain order.

So why would anyone mind?

Well officially, nobody does mind (see the dry US statement above). But unofficially, you can bet strategists in Beijing, Moscow, and the West are all over this for three reasons.

First, both China and Russia have a history of using their civilian coast guard for non-civilian purposes. For example:

• China has been ramming Philippine vessels inside Philippine waters to assert its vast claims over the South China Sea (rejected by an international tribunal), and
• Russia once used coast guard vessels to fire upon and then seize three Ukrainian navy vessels in international waters (a couple of years before it then invaded).

Second, this adds a bit more substance to the China-Russia ‘no limits’ friendship, which aims for “the establishment of a new kind of relationship between world powers” (ie, kinda remaking the international order). But of course, while China is helping keep Russia’s wartime economy afloat, there are clearly still ‘limits’ between them: eg, Beijing is even squeezing Moscow on gas prices right now. So the occasional joint coast guard exercise is a low cost way to still hint at something bigger and keep your rivals guessing.

And third, there’s the Arctic itself which is, despite appearances, so hot right now. The US and its allies make up seven of the world’s eight Arctic states. Russia is the eighth (and largest), while China has declared itself a “near-Arctic state” – that’s not officially a ‘thing’, and even if it was, China’s northernmost provincial capital is about as close to the Arctic as Portland is. So then, what’s all this interest in the Arctic?

• An estimated 13% of the world’s untapped oil reserves and 30% of its undiscovered natural gas are in the Arctic
• The region is rich in resources like critical minerals (essential for energy, tech, and defence industries), and
• While the melting ice portends an ecological disaster, it’s also opening up new maritime routes which could change the face of global trade.

But zooming out a little further, there are some big picture strategic stakes, too: a top fear for traditional land powers like Russia and China is the risk of being (or feeling) ‘encircled’ by your enemies. So from that perspective, expanding your presence up north is a way to break that fear of encirclement and even reverse-Uno it against your rivals:

• The US flew two strategic bombers off Russia’s Arctic coast in July
• Russia and China then jointly flew bombers off Alaska for the first time, and
• That’s all while Russia has built or revived ~500 military sites along its Arctic over the past decade.

And this is all playing out on the diplomatic front too, with Moscow and Beijing convening an Arctic conference last week, signing a shipping pact (with Arctic characteristics) in August, and their two presidents highlighted joint Arctic work in May.

So against all that, it’s easy to see a routine joint coast guard exercise in a whole new light.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

Zooming out a little further, another interesting aspect of all this is what’s happening with the Arctic Council: that’s the international body that’s meant to guide cooperation among the eight Arctic powers. Seven of the Council’s eight members are now NATO members. The eighth is Russia (China is an observer).

And the thing is, ever since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, that Arctic Council has effectively broken down. That’s hampered environmental cooperation in a region that desperately needs it. But it’s also removed guardrails against outright Arctic competition, commercialisation, and militarisation.

So you can add the Arctic to the long and growing list of places now feeling the effects of Putin’s decision to invade his democratic neighbour.

Also worth noting:

• China and Russia agreed back in 2017 to develop a ‘Polar Silk Road’ (through the Arctic Sea), under China’s Belt & Road infrastructure initiative. But not a lot has really happened since then.
• The Pentagon released a new Arctic Strategy in July, featuring sections on China and Russia’s objectives in the region, plus the ‘monitor and respond’ approach the US is taking in response.