A surprise US meeting with Xi Jinping

While US President Joe Biden kicked off Labor Day early on Rehoboth Beach, he kept his team busy by sending his national security advisor (Jake Sullivan) on a three-day trip to Beijing.

And the trip is significant for a few reasons. First, the venue:

• It’s the first time in seven years a US national security advisor has stepped foot in China, and yet
• It’s Sullivan’s sixth one-on-one with China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi

So there’s a gesture at play here: ‘okay, we’ll come to your place this time’.

Second, the timing: Biden has continued to play hardball with Xi lately. How hard? Let’s break it down with some examples. Biden has —

• On trade, slapped another $18B in tariffs on China’s goods
• On business, he’s moved to ban TikTok unless it cuts its Beijing ties
• On tech, he’s restricted China’s access to advanced chips
• On security, he’s backed an ally (the Philippines) in the South China Sea, and
• As a kicker, he’s described China as “cheating”.

At the same time, the economic data out of China just keeps looking grim. For example, the Beijing municipal government has released figures suggesting the city’s larger hospitality businesses have seen profits drop by 89% this year. Ie, folks seem to be eating out way less given all the uncertainty.

So, it’s a complicated time for a complicated relationship.

But third, there’s Sullivan’s itinerary.

As expected, he met China’s top diplomat (Wang Yi), and the read-out was relatively conciliatory: Wang’s team described the talks as “in-depth, candid, substantive and constructive”, while Sullivan underscored “the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait” (without digging into specifics that irritate Beijing).

Interestingly, Sullivan then saw General Zhang Youxia, who’s vice chair of China’s Central Military Commission. The ‘vice’ possibly gives off junior-burger vibes, but you’ve gotta remember the chair is Xi Jinping himself. So this is a big deal, and the first such US meeting since 2018 when Xu Qiliang held the role.

Anyway, true to form, the general was blunter than the diplomat, urging the US to: a) “correct its strategic perceptions of China”, b) adopt a “rational and pragmatic” approach, and c) “truly respect China’s core interests”. He closed with a mic drop on Taiwan, describing it as the “first red line that must not be crossed”.

Still, these are mostly Beijing’s standard lines, and (again) you’ve gotta remember Xi only just resumed military comms with the US at all in December, after suspending them when Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in 2022.

But then… something surprising happened: right as Sullivan was wrapping his three-day talks yesterday (Thursday), he got a last-minute invite to meet the big chair himself: Xi Jinping – well above Sullivan’s rank.

Now, China pulled a similar surprise when Secretary of State Blinken was there in April, and (bear with us here) it reminds us of the golden rule for stand-up comics: open with your second-best material (foreign minister), pad out the set with something else (defence chief), then close with your banger (the president).

Anyway, it all seemed a pretty friendly conclusion: the brief US readout didn’t mention Taiwan explicitly (just “cross-Strait issues”) andXi shared his hopes that the “two major countries find a right way to get along with each other, serving as a source of stability for world peace and a propeller for common development.”

Naturally, reporters then wanted to know if all this means Biden and Xi might squeeze in a final meeting before Biden leaves office.

But Sullivan is still playing it coy: the world’s two most powerful leaders will both be at APEC in Peru and the G20 in Brazil in November, so anything’s possible.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

Sullivan’s first encounter with Wang (this term) went down in history for descending into a broader shouting match, though that was partly due to the presence of the more acerbic Yang Jiechi, who retired last year.

Still, compared to that infamous 2021 meeting – and the months of silent treatment that’ve punctuated US-China ties ever since – this week looks good.

But as we said earlier this week, this still all feels more tacticalthan a change in strategy – neither side wants an escalation, but neither side is willing to back down.

You can see this in the way Biden has dispatched two top officials to the region this week, with two very different aims: Sullivan went to Beijing to engage China, while Kurt Campbell went to the Pacific Islands to counter it.

So then, what was Xi’s play this week, given Biden shortly leaves office? Xi’s probably wagering that if Biden can vacate the White House with US-China ties at least stabilised, that would (in Xi’s view at least) raise the costs for any new US president seeking to destabilise things. But as with so much else in our world today, that really depends on who wins the White House.